Danubio vs C.A. Progreso: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Danubiovs
C.A. ProgresoOur model leans C.A. Progreso (85% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −Recent form favours Danubio.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Danubio have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Recent form favours Danubio.
- The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- Danubio have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 18 | 19 | 14 | 8 | 3 |
| 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | |||||
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Danubio and C.A. Progreso. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 9% for Danubio, 6% for the draw and 85% for C.A. Progreso.
Several signals point toward C.A. Progreso. The odds point to a clear favourite.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 1 Danubio wins, 4 draws and 1 C.A. Progreso wins. Recent scorelines: 2-2, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 0-0.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-2 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Danubio show L-L-L-W-D across their recent outings, while C.A. Progreso read L-L-L-L-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams to score at 25%. The profile leans toward a tighter, lower-scoring game.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Danubio" (1X2): we rate it 9% versus the 6% implied by odds of 17.00, an edge of 3.5 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Danubio or C.A. Progreso?
Our model rates C.A. Progreso as the most likely outcome at 85% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Danubio vs C.A. Progreso?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Danubio wins, 4 draws, 1 C.A. Progreso wins.
Match statistics
Referee: 60a82526f75a663f69a45dc1Match story
How the game unfoldedCautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)
Danubio make it count (Pereyra J.N. (27')). It's 1–0 at this point.
Half-time score: Danubio 1 – 0 C.A. Progreso.
No goals but plenty of bite: 2 card(s) in this spell. Score holds at 1–0.
C.A. Progreso make it count (Silva Gas. (81')). It's 1–1 at this point.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.