Sportivo Italiano vs San Martin de Burzaco: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sportivo Italianovs
San Martin de BurzacoOur model leans San Martin de Burzaco (43% probability), medium confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Sportivo Italiano have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- Sportivo Italiano have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Sportivo Italiano and San Martin de Burzaco. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 32% for Sportivo Italiano, 24% for the draw and 43% for San Martin de Burzaco.
Several signals point toward San Martin de Burzaco. The odds point to a clear favourite.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 1 Sportivo Italiano wins, 3 draws and 2 San Martin de Burzaco wins. Recent scorelines: 1-0, 1-1, 0-0, 1-1, 0-4.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-2 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Sportivo Italiano show W-D-D-W-D across their recent outings, while San Martin de Burzaco read W-L-W-D-D. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 52%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sportivo Italiano or San Martin de Burzaco?
Our model rates San Martin de Burzaco as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sportivo Italiano vs San Martin de Burzaco?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Sportivo Italiano wins, 3 draws, 2 San Martin de Burzaco wins.
Match statistics
Match story
How the game unfoldedCautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)
No goals but plenty of bite: 1 card(s) in this spell. Score holds at 0–0.
Half-time score: Sportivo Italiano 0 – 0 San Martin de Burzaco.
The game settles after the break without a breakthrough. (0–0)
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (0–0)
League table
Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal de Sarandi | 17 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 24:8 | 34 |
| 2 |  Villa Dalmine | 16 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 21:7 | 33 |
| 3 |  Atletico Camioneros | 17 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 19:8 | 33 |
| 4 |  Excursionistas | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 20:9 | 31 |
| 5 |  Club Atletico Talleres Remedios de Escalada | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 15:8 | 31 |
| 6 | Sportivo Italiano | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 17:11 | 30 |
| 7 |  Deportivo Merlo | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 20:19 | 27 |
| 8 |  Club Comunicaciones | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 18:15 | 26 |
| 9 |  Real Pilar | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 20:19 | 25 |
| 10 | San Martin de Burzaco | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 18:14 | 22 |
| 11 |  Dock Sud | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 18:14 | 22 |
| 12 |  Deportivo Laferrere | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 15:21 | 20 |
| 13 |  Deportivo Liniers | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 11:17 | 20 |
| 14 |  Argentino de Merlo | 17 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 10:15 | 19 |
| 15 |  CSyD Flandria | 17 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 13:20 | 19 |
| 16 |  Deportivo Armenio | 17 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 16:24 | 18 |
| 17 |  Defensores Unidos | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 14:16 | 16 |
| 18 |  UAI Urquiza | 17 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 9:13 | 16 |
| 19 |  Argentino de Quilmes | 16 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 13:16 | 15 |
| 20 |  Club Atletico Brown | 17 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 9:20 | 15 |
| 21 |  Villa San Carlos | 17 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 19:25 | 14 |
| 22 |  Club Atletico Ituzaingo | 17 | 0 | 12 | 5 | 10:30 | 5 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.