Union Brescia vs Salernitana 1919: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Union Bresciavs
Salernitana 1919Our model leans Union Brescia (74% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +Union Brescia have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Union Brescia have home advantage.
- Goals outlook: a tight, low-scoring game likely.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 17 | 9 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 16 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Union Brescia and Salernitana 1919. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 74% for Union Brescia, 5% for the draw and 21% for Salernitana 1919.
Several signals point toward Union Brescia. The odds point to a clear favourite. Union Brescia have home advantage.
Across the last 1 meetings, the record reads 0 Union Brescia wins, 1 draws and 0 Salernitana 1919 wins. Recent scorelines: 1-1.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-0 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Union Brescia show D-D-W-W-L across their recent outings, while Salernitana 1919 read D-W-L-D-W. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 42% and both teams to score at 34%. The profile leans toward a tighter, lower-scoring game.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Over 2.5" (O/U 2.5): we rate it 42% versus the 18% implied by odds of 5.57, an edge of 23.8 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Union Brescia or Salernitana 1919?
Our model rates Union Brescia as the most likely outcome at 74% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Union Brescia vs Salernitana 1919?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 0 Union Brescia wins, 1 draws, 0 Salernitana 1919 wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Match statistics
Match story
How the game unfoldedUnion Brescia make it count (Crespi (1')). It's 1–0 at this point.
A controlled first-half spell with few clear chances. (1–0)
Half-time score: Union Brescia 1 – 0 Salernitana 1919.
No goals but plenty of bite: 1 card(s) in this spell. Score holds at 1–0.
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (1–0)
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.