Real Sociedad II vs Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Our model leans Real Sociedad II (40% probability), medium confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −The head-to-head record favours Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa (0-4-2).
- −Real Sociedad II are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Real Sociedad II have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa (0-4-2).
- Real Sociedad II are dealing with notable absentees.
- Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa are dealing with notable absentees.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Real Sociedad II and Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 40% for Real Sociedad II, 28% for the draw and 32% for Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa.
Several signals point toward Real Sociedad II. The odds point to a clear favourite. Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa are dealing with notable absentees. Real Sociedad II have home advantage.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 0 Real Sociedad II wins, 4 draws and 2 Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa wins. Recent scorelines: 1-1, 2-2, 1-1, 3-1, 0-0.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Real Sociedad II show L-D-W-D-W across their recent outings, while Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa read W-L-L-D-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 52%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa" (1X2): we rate it 32% versus the 29% implied by odds of 3.30, an edge of 3.3 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Real Sociedad II or Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa?
Our model rates Real Sociedad II as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Real Sociedad II vs Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 0 Real Sociedad II wins, 4 draws, 2 Cultural y Deportiva Leonesa wins.
League table
Spain. Segunda Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41 | 24 | 10 | 7 | 86:60 | 79 | |
| 2 | 41 | 22 | 8 | 11 | 64:42 | 77 | |
| 3 | 41 | 21 | 12 | 8 | 80:63 | 71 | |
| 4 | 41 | 20 | 11 | 10 | 73:52 | 70 | |
| 5 | 41 | 19 | 9 | 13 | 55:39 | 70 | |
| 6 | 41 | 19 | 10 | 12 | 68:50 | 69 | |
| 7 | 41 | 19 | 10 | 12 | 47:33 | 69 | |
| 8 | 41 | 19 | 12 | 10 | 51:38 | 67 | |
| 9 | 41 | 17 | 15 | 9 | 56:60 | 60 | |
| 10 | 41 | 16 | 14 | 11 | 56:54 | 59 | |
| 11 | 41 | 16 | 15 | 10 | 50:63 | 58 | |
| 12 | 41 | 17 | 17 | 7 | 58:53 | 58 | |
| 13 | 41 | 16 | 15 | 10 | 62:53 | 58 | |
| 14 | 41 | 12 | 17 | 12 | 49:54 | 48 | |
| 15 | 41 | 12 | 19 | 10 | 51:60 | 46 | |
| 16 | 41 | 12 | 19 | 10 | 44:56 | 46 | |
| 17 | 41 | 11 | 20 | 10 | 40:57 | 43 | |
| 18 | 41 | 10 | 18 | 13 | 42:51 | 43 | |
| 19 | 41 | 10 | 21 | 10 | 47:68 | 40 | |
| 20 | 41 | 9 | 22 | 10 | 40:62 | 37 | |
| 21 | 41 | 9 | 23 | 9 | 38:67 | 36 | |
| 22 | 41 | 8 | 21 | 12 | 35:57 | 36 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.