Brann vs Sarpsborg 08: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Our model leans Brann (57% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Brann are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Sarpsborg 08 are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Brann have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- Brann are dealing with notable absentees.
- Sarpsborg 08 are dealing with notable absentees.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Brann and Sarpsborg 08. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 57% for Brann, 22% for the draw and 22% for Sarpsborg 08.
Several signals point toward Brann. The odds point to a clear favourite. Sarpsborg 08 are dealing with notable absentees. Brann have home advantage.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 2 Brann wins, 2 draws and 2 Sarpsborg 08 wins. Recent scorelines: 1-4, 2-2, 1-3, 1-1, 1-0.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Brann show L-L-L-L-L across their recent outings, while Sarpsborg 08 read L-L-L-L-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 46%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Brann or Sarpsborg 08?
Our model rates Brann as the most likely outcome at 57% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Brann vs Sarpsborg 08?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Brann wins, 2 draws, 2 Sarpsborg 08 wins.
League table
Norway. Eliteserien| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 29:10 | 27 | |
| 2 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 18:14 | 24 | |
| 3 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 26:9 | 22 | |
| 4 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 17:11 | 19 | |
| 5 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 16:12 | 16 | |
| 6 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 15:14 | 16 | |
| 7 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 9:11 | 14 | |
| 8 | 11 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 23:18 | 13 | |
| 9 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 11:15 | 11 | |
| 10 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 12:17 | 11 | |
| 11 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10:15 | 11 | |
| 12 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 13:19 | 11 | |
| 13 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 10:16 | 11 | |
| 14 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 13:18 | 10 | |
| 15 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 7:16 | 8 | |
| 16 | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 12:26 | 7 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.