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Norway. Eliteserien

Brann vs Sarpsborg 08: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

Brann BrannvsSarpsborg 08 Sarpsborg 08
Our predictionBrann to win
Confidence: High · 92/100
Score hint: 2-1

Our model leans Brann (57% probability), high confidence.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

Win probabilities

1 · Brann57%
Draw22%
2 · Sarpsborg 0822%
1 · BrannDraw2 · Sarpsborg 08
Full team comparison

Recent form

BrannLLLLL
Sarpsborg 08LLLLL
Team strength rating
Brann
49
Sarpsborg 08
28

Most likely scorelines

1-013.1%
2-012.0%
1-110.5%
2-19.7%
3-07.4%
0-07.1%

Expected goals

1.84Brann
xG
0.80Sarpsborg 08
Over 2.5 goals49%
Both teams to score46%

Match DNA

AttackDefenseFormStrengthH2HVenue
Brann Sarpsborg 08

Key points

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment
1X2Brann win1.65Fair (-0.8%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A012345
0762
1131141
2121041
3762
4331
511

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Value radar

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.

1X2Draw4.52+0.6%
1X2Sarpsborg 084.40+0.3%
1X2Brann1.65-0.8%
Our model BookmakerPositive edge = potential value. Not betting advice.

Full analysis

The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Brann and Sarpsborg 08. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 57% for Brann, 22% for the draw and 22% for Sarpsborg 08.

Several signals point toward Brann. The odds point to a clear favourite. Sarpsborg 08 are dealing with notable absentees. Brann have home advantage.

Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 2 Brann wins, 2 draws and 2 Sarpsborg 08 wins. Recent scorelines: 1-4, 2-2, 1-3, 1-1, 1-0.

If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.

On form, Brann show L-L-L-L-L across their recent outings, while Sarpsborg 08 read L-L-L-L-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 46%. The totals market stays finely balanced.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Brann or Sarpsborg 08?

Our model rates Brann as the most likely outcome at 57% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Brann vs Sarpsborg 08?

A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 6 meetings: 2 Brann wins, 2 draws, 2 Sarpsborg 08 wins.

See odds at bookmakers

League table

Norway. Eliteserien
#TeamGPWLTGPts
1Viking1091029:1027
2Tromso1272318:1424
3Bodo-Glimt1072126:922
4Lillestrom1164117:1119
5Molde1054116:1216
6HamKam953115:1416
7Sandefjord104429:1114
8Brann1146123:1813
9Sarpsborg 081035211:1511
10KFUM-Kameratene1035212:1711
11Kristiansund BK1035210:1511
12Fredrikstad1035213:1911
13Valerenga1035210:1611
14Aalesunds1024413:1810
15Rosenborg102627:168
16IK Start1116412:267
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Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.