Levadia II vs Elva: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Levadia IIvs
ElvaOur model leans Levadia II (46% probability), medium confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +Recent form favours Levadia II.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +Levadia II have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Recent form favours Levadia II.
- The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- Levadia II have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Levadia II and Elva. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 46% for Levadia II, 33% for the draw and 20% for Elva.
Several signals point toward Levadia II. The odds point to a clear favourite. Recent form favours Levadia II. Levadia II have home advantage.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 2 Levadia II wins, 2 draws and 2 Elva wins. Recent scorelines: 3-2, 2-1, 2-0, 2-2, 3-2.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Levadia II show L-W-L-W-L across their recent outings, while Elva read L-L-L-W-D. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 49%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Levadia II or Elva?
Our model rates Levadia II as the most likely outcome at 46% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Levadia II vs Elva?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Levadia II wins, 2 draws, 2 Elva wins.
League table
Estonia. Esiliiga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viimsi JK | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 25:9 | 27 |
| 2 |  Tartu JK Welco Elekter | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 34:16 | 26 |
| 3 |  Flora Tallinn II | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 30:22 | 20 |
| 4 |  Nomme United U21 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 24:23 | 18 |
| 5 | Elva | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 22:20 | 17 |
| 6 |  Tallinna Kalev | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 23:26 | 15 |
| 7 |  Nomme Kalju U21 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 17:25 | 14 |
| 8 |  Maardu Linnameeskond | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 14:28 | 12 |
| 9 |  Tallinn | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 17:31 | 10 |
| 10 | Levadia II | 12 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 20:26 | 9 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.