Tallinn vs Maardu Linnameeskond: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Tallinnvs
Maardu LinnameeskondOur model leans the draw (41% probability), medium confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −The head-to-head record favours Maardu Linnameeskond (0-1-1).
- −Tallinn have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours Maardu Linnameeskond (0-1-1).
- Tallinn have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Tallinn and Maardu Linnameeskond. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 32% for Tallinn, 41% for the draw and 27% for Maardu Linnameeskond.
Several signals point toward the draw. The odds point to a clear favourite.
Across the last 2 meetings, the record reads 0 Tallinn wins, 1 draws and 1 Maardu Linnameeskond wins. Recent scorelines: 1-1, 1-4.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Tallinn show W-D-L-W-L across their recent outings, while Maardu Linnameeskond read W-W-L-L-D. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Maardu Linnameeskond" (1X2): we rate it 27% versus the 24% implied by odds of 3.86, an edge of 3.6 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Tallinn or Maardu Linnameeskond?
Our model rates the draw as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Tallinn vs Maardu Linnameeskond?
A scoreline around 1-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 0 Tallinn wins, 1 draws, 1 Maardu Linnameeskond wins.
League table
Estonia. Esiliiga| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viimsi JK | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 25:9 | 27 |
| 2 |  Tartu JK Welco Elekter | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 34:16 | 26 |
| 3 |  Flora Tallinn II | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 30:22 | 20 |
| 4 |  Nomme United U21 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 24:23 | 18 |
| 5 |  Elva | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 22:20 | 17 |
| 6 |  Tallinna Kalev | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 23:26 | 15 |
| 7 |  Nomme Kalju U21 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 17:25 | 14 |
| 8 | Maardu Linnameeskond | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 14:28 | 12 |
| 9 | Tallinn | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 17:31 | 10 |
| 10 |  Levadia II | 12 | 3 | 9 | 0 | 20:26 | 9 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.