AB Argir vs NSI Runavik: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Our model leans NSI Runavik (54% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +The head-to-head record favours NSI Runavik (1-0-5).
- +Recent form favours AB Argir.
- −AB Argir have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours NSI Runavik (1-0-5).
- Recent form favours AB Argir.
- AB Argir have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between AB Argir and NSI Runavik. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 13% for AB Argir, 33% for the draw and 54% for NSI Runavik.
Several signals point toward NSI Runavik. The odds point to a clear favourite. The head-to-head record favours NSI Runavik (1-0-5). Recent form favours AB Argir.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 1 AB Argir wins, 0 draws and 5 NSI Runavik wins. Recent scorelines: 2-1, 1-2, 1-4, 2-3, 1-2.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-2 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, AB Argir show L-W-L-D-W across their recent outings, while NSI Runavik read W-W-L-L-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams to score at 46%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "NSI Runavik" (1X2): we rate it 54% versus the 51% implied by odds of 1.83, an edge of 3.6 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, AB Argir or NSI Runavik?
Our model rates NSI Runavik as the most likely outcome at 54% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for AB Argir vs NSI Runavik?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 AB Argir wins, 0 draws, 5 NSI Runavik wins.
Match statistics
Referee: 67114a020d8c0bfbf1977d27Match story
How the game unfoldedNo goals but plenty of bite: 1 card(s) in this spell. Score holds at 0–0.
An end-to-end spell with goals at both ends (Skala R. (24'), Knudsen P. (31'), Unknown (35')). Score moves to 1–2.
Half-time score: AB Argir 1 – 2 NSI Runavik.
An end-to-end spell with goals at both ends (Jakobsen (53'), Unknown (61'), Benjaminsen J. J. (70')). Score moves to 2–4.
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (2–4)
League table
Faroe Islands. Effodeildin| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 21:10 | 26 | |
| 2 | 11 | 7 | 0 | 4 | 21:6 | 25 | |
| 3 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 23:7 | 23 | |
| 4 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14:9 | 17 | |
| 5 | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 16:18 | 14 | |
| 6 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 14:18 | 11 | |
| 7 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 13:26 | 11 | |
| 8 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 11:15 | 10 | |
| 9 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 10:17 | 9 | |
| 10 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 6:23 | 7 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.