Ilves vs Turun Palloseura: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Ilvesvs
Turun PalloseuraIlves are strong favourites to win at home, with a 58% model probability supported by perfect head-to-head dominance and superior recent form. A 2-1 home victory aligns with the historical pattern and current odds.
Why this prediction
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +The head-to-head record favours Ilves (6-0-0).
- +Recent form favours Ilves.
- +Ilves have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Ilves unbeaten in all 6 head-to-head meetings (6-0-0 record)
- Home side's recent form significantly better than visitors (1W-1D-3L vs 1D-4L)
- Bookmaker odds (1.74 for home win) reflect 54% implied probability, slightly lower than model's 58%
- Away side showing consistent struggles with four consecutive losses in recent form
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The data presents a heavily skewed matchup in Ilves' favour. Their perfect head-to-head record of 6 wins from 6 meetings is exceptional and a primary driver of confidence. Recent meetings have been variable in scoreline (ranging 0-2 to 7-1) but consistently decisive, with no draws in the series.
Form comparison reveals a significant gap: Ilves' recent sequence shows mixed results (L-W-D-W-L) typical of competitive teams, while Turun Palloseura's stretch (L-L-L-L-D) indicates a concerning downward trend with four consecutive defeats immediately preceding this fixture.
Home advantage stacks the evidence further. Ilves are playing in familiar conditions against an away side that has struggled to accumulate points recently. The bookmaker odds of 1.74 (-134) represent solid value aligned with fundamental metrics, though the model's 58% probability suggests marginal upside.
The score hint of 2-1 reflects the general expectation of a decisive home win with some resistance from the visitors—consistent with the historical volatility in recent meetings and away side's occasional resilience despite poor form.
Bettors should recognise this as a likely but not certain outcome. A 22% away probability and 20% draw chance remain meaningful, particularly given cup football's unpredictability. Responsible play means treating -134 home odds as value only within disciplined bankroll strategy.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Ilves or Turun Palloseura?
Our model rates Ilves as the most likely outcome at 58% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Ilves vs Turun Palloseura?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 6 Ilves wins, 0 draws, 0 Turun Palloseura wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.