Grindavik vs Ungmennafelagid Afturelding: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Grindavikvs
Ungmennafelagid AftureldingOur model leans the draw (84% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −Recent form favours Ungmennafelagid Afturelding.
- +The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Grindavik have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Recent form favours Ungmennafelagid Afturelding.
- The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- Grindavik have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Grindavik and Ungmennafelagid Afturelding. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 4% for Grindavik, 84% for the draw and 12% for Ungmennafelagid Afturelding.
Several signals point toward the draw. The odds point to a clear favourite. The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 2 Grindavik wins, 1 draws and 3 Ungmennafelagid Afturelding wins. Recent scorelines: 0-3, 1-1, 1-2, 0-3, 0-1.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Grindavik show D-W-L-D-D across their recent outings, while Ungmennafelagid Afturelding read W-W-W-W-D. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Ungmennafelagid Afturelding" (1X2): we rate it 12% versus the 8% implied by odds of 11.00, an edge of 3.2 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Grindavik or Ungmennafelagid Afturelding?
Our model rates the draw as the most likely outcome at 84% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Grindavik vs Ungmennafelagid Afturelding?
A scoreline around 1-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Grindavik wins, 1 draws, 3 Ungmennafelagid Afturelding wins.
Match statistics
Match story
How the game unfoldedNo goals but plenty of bite: 1 card(s) in this spell. Score holds at 0–0.
Ungmennafelagid Afturelding make it count (Holtan (20'), Birkir Saevarsson (45+2')). It's 0–2 at this point.
Half-time score: Grindavik 0 – 2 Ungmennafelagid Afturelding.
An end-to-end spell with goals at both ends (Victor (56'), Odinn Bjarkason (62')). Score moves to 1–3.
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (1–3)
League table
Iceland. 1. Deild| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Fylkir | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8:3 | 12 |
| 2 |  Knattspyrnufelagið Þrottur | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12:6 | 10 |
| 3 | Ungmennafelagid Afturelding | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14:11 | 10 |
| 4 |  HK Kopavogur | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12:9 | 9 |
| 5 |  Iþrottafelag Reykjavikur | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14:12 | 7 |
| 6 | Grindavik | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6:4 | 7 |
| 7 |  Vestri | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10:12 | 7 |
| 8 |  Leiknir Reykjavík | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4:6 | 6 |
| 9 |  Grotta | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9:12 | 6 |
| 10 |  Ungmennafelag Njardvikur | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2:4 | 5 |
| 11 |  Iþrottafelagið Volsungur | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2:8 | 2 |
| 12 |  KF Aegir Thorlakshofn | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2:8 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.