Vestri vs Ungmennafelag Njardvikur: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Our model leans the draw (89% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −The head-to-head record favours Ungmennafelag Njardvikur (1-0-5).
- −Vestri have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours Ungmennafelag Njardvikur (1-0-5).
- Vestri have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Vestri and Ungmennafelag Njardvikur. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 3% for Vestri, 89% for the draw and 8% for Ungmennafelag Njardvikur.
Several signals point toward the draw. The odds point to a clear favourite.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 1 Vestri wins, 0 draws and 5 Ungmennafelag Njardvikur wins. Recent scorelines: 2-0, 2-0, 3-1, 2-4, 2-3.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Vestri show L-W-W-L-L across their recent outings, while Ungmennafelag Njardvikur read D-L-L-L-D. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Ungmennafelag Njardvikur" (1X2): we rate it 8% versus the 3% implied by odds of 28.00, an edge of 4.7 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Vestri or Ungmennafelag Njardvikur?
Our model rates the draw as the most likely outcome at 89% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Vestri vs Ungmennafelag Njardvikur?
A scoreline around 1-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Vestri wins, 0 draws, 5 Ungmennafelag Njardvikur wins.
Match statistics
Match story
How the game unfoldedUngmennafelag Njardvikur make it count (Bjarkason (11')). It's 0–1 at this point.
Ungmennafelag Njardvikur make it count (Gudnason (42')). It's 0–2 at this point.
Half-time score: Vestri 0 – 2 Ungmennafelag Njardvikur.
The game settles after the break without a breakthrough. (0–2)
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (0–2)
League table
Iceland. 1. Deild| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8:3 | 12 | |
| 2 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12:6 | 10 | |
| 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14:11 | 10 | |
| 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12:9 | 9 | |
| 5 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14:12 | 7 | |
| 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6:4 | 7 | |
| 7 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10:12 | 7 | |
| 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4:6 | 6 | |
| 9 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9:12 | 6 | |
| 10 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2:4 | 5 | |
| 11 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2:8 | 2 | |
| 12 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2:8 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.