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Iceland. 1. Deild

Vestri vs Ungmennafelag Njardvikur: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

Vestri VestrivsUngmennafelag Njardvikur Ungmennafelag Njardvikur
Our predictionDraw
Confidence: High · 92/100
Score hint: 1-1

Our model leans the draw (89% probability), high confidence.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

Win probabilities

1 · Vestri3%
Draw89%
2 · Ungmennafelag Njardvikur8%
1 · VestriDraw2 · Ungmennafelag Njardvikur
Full team comparison

Value radar

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.

1X2Ungmennafelag Njardvikur28.00+4.7%
1X2Vestri40.00+0.7%
1X2Draw1.01-5.5%
Our model BookmakerPositive edge = potential value. Not betting advice.

Recent form

VestriLWWLL
Ungmennafelag NjardvikurDLLLD
Team strength rating
Vestri
25
Ungmennafelag Njardvikur
35

Most likely scorelines

1-112.6%
0-19.7%
1-09.7%
1-28.2%
2-18.1%
0-07.5%

Expected goals

1.30Vestri
xG
1.30Ungmennafelag Njardvikur
Over 2.5 goals48%
Both teams to score53%

Match DNA

AttackDefenseFormStrengthH2HVenue
Vestri Ungmennafelag Njardvikur

Key points

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment
1X2Draw1.01Avoid (-5.5%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A012345
071063
11013841
26852
3342
41
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Vestri and Ungmennafelag Njardvikur. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 3% for Vestri, 89% for the draw and 8% for Ungmennafelag Njardvikur.

Several signals point toward the draw. The odds point to a clear favourite.

Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 1 Vestri wins, 0 draws and 5 Ungmennafelag Njardvikur wins. Recent scorelines: 2-0, 2-0, 3-1, 2-4, 2-3.

If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.

On form, Vestri show L-W-W-L-L across their recent outings, while Ungmennafelag Njardvikur read D-L-L-L-D. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The totals market stays finely balanced.

Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Ungmennafelag Njardvikur" (1X2): we rate it 8% versus the 3% implied by odds of 28.00, an edge of 4.7 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Vestri or Ungmennafelag Njardvikur?

Our model rates the draw as the most likely outcome at 89% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Vestri vs Ungmennafelag Njardvikur?

A scoreline around 1-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 6 meetings: 1 Vestri wins, 0 draws, 5 Ungmennafelag Njardvikur wins.

See odds at bookmakers

Match statistics

68
Possession
32
4
Total shots
9
2
Shots on target
7
6
Corners
2
0
Yellow cards
1
11'Bjarkason
Bjarnason12'
18'Bjarkason
Selven30'
Einarsson30'
36'🟨Unknown
42'Gudnason
55'Bjornsson
64'Stefansson
Albert Johansson67'

Match story

How the game unfolded
0–15'01

Ungmennafelag Njardvikur make it count (Bjarkason (11')). It's 0–1 at this point.

11'Bjarkason12'Bjarnason
15–45'02

Ungmennafelag Njardvikur make it count (Gudnason (42')). It's 0–2 at this point.

18'Bjarkason30'Selven30'Einarsson36'🟨Unknown42'Gudnason
Half-time

Half-time score: Vestri 0 – 2 Ungmennafelag Njardvikur.

45–75'02

The game settles after the break without a breakthrough. (0–2)

55'Bjornsson64'Stefansson67'Albert Johansson
75–90'+02

A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (0–2)

Full time: Vestri 02 Ungmennafelag Njardvikur

League table

Iceland. 1. Deild
#TeamGPWLTGPts
1Fylkir54108:312
2Knattspyrnufelagið Þrottur531112:610
3Ungmennafelagid Afturelding531114:1110
4HK Kopavogur532012:99
5Iþrottafelag Reykjavikur522114:127
6Grindavik51046:47
7Vestri522110:127
8Leiknir Reykjavík51134:66
9Grotta52309:126
10Ungmennafelag Njardvikur51222:45
11Iþrottafelagið Volsungur50322:82
12KF Aegir Thorlakshofn50412:81
Promotion - Best division Promotion - Division 1 (Play-off: Round of 4) Relegation - Division 2

Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.