KF Aegir Thorlakshofn vs Iþrottafelag Reykjavikur: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
KF Aegir Thorlakshofnvs
Iþrottafelag ReykjavikurOur model leans KF Aegir Thorlakshofn (73% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −The head-to-head record favours Iþrottafelag Reykjavikur (1-1-4).
- −Recent form favours Iþrottafelag Reykjavikur.
- +KF Aegir Thorlakshofn have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours Iþrottafelag Reykjavikur (1-1-4).
- Recent form favours Iþrottafelag Reykjavikur.
- KF Aegir Thorlakshofn have home advantage.
- Goals outlook: an open game likely.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 8 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 7 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between KF Aegir Thorlakshofn and Iþrottafelag Reykjavikur. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 73% for KF Aegir Thorlakshofn, 7% for the draw and 20% for Iþrottafelag Reykjavikur.
Several signals point toward KF Aegir Thorlakshofn. The odds point to a clear favourite. KF Aegir Thorlakshofn have home advantage.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 1 KF Aegir Thorlakshofn wins, 1 draws and 4 Iþrottafelag Reykjavikur wins. Recent scorelines: 2-2, 3-2, 3-1, 1-0, 4-3.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, KF Aegir Thorlakshofn show D-L-W-L-L across their recent outings, while Iþrottafelag Reykjavikur read W-L-D-L-W. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 48%. The match profile leans toward a higher goal total.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Under 2.5" (O/U 2.5): we rate it 36% versus the 27% implied by odds of 3.72, an edge of 9.2 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, KF Aegir Thorlakshofn or Iþrottafelag Reykjavikur?
Our model rates KF Aegir Thorlakshofn as the most likely outcome at 73% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for KF Aegir Thorlakshofn vs Iþrottafelag Reykjavikur?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 KF Aegir Thorlakshofn wins, 1 draws, 4 Iþrottafelag Reykjavikur wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Match statistics
Match story
How the game unfoldedCautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)
No goals but plenty of bite: 2 card(s) in this spell. Score holds at 0–0.
Half-time score: KF Aegir Thorlakshofn 0 – 0 Iþrottafelag Reykjavikur.
KF Aegir Thorlakshofn make it count (Adeyemo J. (52'), Stojanović (55')). It's 2–0 at this point.
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (2–0)
League table
Iceland. 1. Deild| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Fylkir | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8:3 | 12 |
| 2 |  Knattspyrnufelagið Þrottur | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12:6 | 10 |
| 3 |  Ungmennafelagid Afturelding | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14:11 | 10 |
| 4 |  HK Kopavogur | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12:9 | 9 |
| 5 | Iþrottafelag Reykjavikur | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14:12 | 7 |
| 6 |  Grindavik | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6:4 | 7 |
| 7 |  Vestri | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10:12 | 7 |
| 8 |  Leiknir Reykjavík | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4:6 | 6 |
| 9 |  Grotta | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9:12 | 6 |
| 10 |  Ungmennafelag Njardvikur | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2:4 | 5 |
| 11 |  Iþrottafelagið Volsungur | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2:8 | 2 |
| 12 | KF Aegir Thorlakshofn | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 2:8 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.