Atletico Clube Goianiense vs Goias Esporte Clube: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Our model leans Atletico Clube Goianiense (41% probability), medium confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +Recent form favours Atletico Clube Goianiense.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Atletico Clube Goianiense are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Goias Esporte Clube are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Atletico Clube Goianiense have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Recent form favours Atletico Clube Goianiense.
- The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- Atletico Clube Goianiense are dealing with notable absentees.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Atletico Clube Goianiense and Goias Esporte Clube. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 41% for Atletico Clube Goianiense, 28% for the draw and 31% for Goias Esporte Clube.
Several signals point toward Atletico Clube Goianiense. The odds point to a clear favourite. Recent form favours Atletico Clube Goianiense. Goias Esporte Clube are dealing with notable absentees.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 1 Atletico Clube Goianiense wins, 3 draws and 2 Goias Esporte Clube wins. Recent scorelines: 0-0, 0-2, 1-1, 0-0, 1-2.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Atletico Clube Goianiense show W-D-W-W-D across their recent outings, while Goias Esporte Clube read W-L-L-L-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 52%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Atletico Clube Goianiense" (1X2): we rate it 41% versus the 39% implied by odds of 2.40, an edge of 2.3 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Atletico Clube Goianiense or Goias Esporte Clube?
Our model rates Atletico Clube Goianiense as the most likely outcome at 41% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Atletico Clube Goianiense vs Goias Esporte Clube?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Atletico Clube Goianiense wins, 3 draws, 2 Goias Esporte Clube wins.
Odds movement
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie B| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 16:7 | 20 | |
| 2 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 16:9 | 19 | |
| 3 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 13:7 | 19 | |
| 4 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16:11 | 19 | |
| 5 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14:10 | 18 | |
| 6 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 11:12 | 16 | |
| 7 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13:10 | 16 | |
| 8 | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 9:6 | 16 | |
| 9 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 17:15 | 14 | |
| 10 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 11:9 | 14 | |
| 11 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12:11 | 14 | |
| 12 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11:11 | 13 | |
| 13 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10:13 | 13 | |
| 14 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 9:10 | 12 | |
| 15 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10:13 | 10 | |
| 16 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 4:5 | 10 | |
| 17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 11:11 | 9 | |
| 18 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 12:18 | 8 | |
| 19 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 9:20 | 7 | |
| 20 | 11 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 6:22 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.