JK Trans Narva U21 vs Phoenix Johvi: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Our model leans JK Trans Narva U21 (52% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −Recent form favours Phoenix Johvi.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +JK Trans Narva U21 have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Recent form favours Phoenix Johvi.
- The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- JK Trans Narva U21 have home advantage.
- Goals outlook: an open game likely.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between JK Trans Narva U21 and Phoenix Johvi. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 52% for JK Trans Narva U21, 25% for the draw and 23% for Phoenix Johvi.
Several signals point toward JK Trans Narva U21. The odds point to a clear favourite. JK Trans Narva U21 have home advantage.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 2 JK Trans Narva U21 wins, 1 draws and 3 Phoenix Johvi wins. Recent scorelines: 4-2, 1-0, 4-2, 3-4, 3-3.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, JK Trans Narva U21 show L-L-D-L-L across their recent outings, while Phoenix Johvi read L-W-W-L-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 60%. The match profile leans toward a higher goal total.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Under 2.5" (O/U 2.5): we rate it 36% versus the 24% implied by odds of 4.20, an edge of 12.0 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, JK Trans Narva U21 or Phoenix Johvi?
Our model rates JK Trans Narva U21 as the most likely outcome at 52% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for JK Trans Narva U21 vs Phoenix Johvi?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 JK Trans Narva U21 wins, 1 draws, 3 Phoenix Johvi wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Estonia. Esiliiga B| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 39:24 | 25 | |
| 2 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 31:31 | 24 | |
| 3 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 39:24 | 24 | |
| 4 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 33:25 | 22 | |
| 5 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 27:20 | 19 | |
| 6 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 29:20 | 19 | |
| 7 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 28:23 | 17 | |
| 8 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 21:34 | 15 | |
| 9 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 22:30 | 7 | |
| 10 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 10:48 | 7 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.