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Estonia. Esiliiga B

JK Trans Narva U21 vs Phoenix Johvi: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

JK Trans Narva U21 JK Trans Narva U21vsPhoenix Johvi Phoenix Johvi
Our predictionJK Trans Narva U21 to win
Confidence: High · 72/100
Score hint: 2-1

Our model leans JK Trans Narva U21 (52% probability), high confidence.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

Win probabilities

1 · JK Trans Narva U2152%
Draw25%
2 · Phoenix Johvi23%
1 · JK Trans Narva U21Draw2 · Phoenix Johvi
Full team comparison

Value radar

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.

O/U 2.5Under 2.54.20+12.0%
1X2Phoenix Johvi4.35+2.1%
1X2Draw3.62+0.2%
1X2JK Trans Narva U211.68-2.3%
O/U 2.5Over 2.51.19-19.8%
Our model BookmakerPositive edge = potential value. Not betting advice.

Recent form

JK Trans Narva U21LLDLL
Phoenix JohviLWWLL

Expected goals

2.23JK Trans Narva U21
xG
1.12Phoenix Johvi
Over 2.5 goals64%
Both teams to score60%
Team strength rating
JK Trans Narva U21
48
Phoenix Johvi
42

Most likely scorelines

2-19.8%
1-18.8%
2-08.7%
1-07.8%
3-17.3%
3-06.5%

Match DNA

AttackDefenseFormStrengthH2HVenue
JK Trans Narva U21 Phoenix Johvi

Key points

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment
1X2JK Trans Narva U21 win1.68Fair (-2.3%)
Total goalsOver 2.51.19Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A012345
0442
18952
291052
36742
4442
5221

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between JK Trans Narva U21 and Phoenix Johvi. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 52% for JK Trans Narva U21, 25% for the draw and 23% for Phoenix Johvi.

Several signals point toward JK Trans Narva U21. The odds point to a clear favourite. JK Trans Narva U21 have home advantage.

Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 2 JK Trans Narva U21 wins, 1 draws and 3 Phoenix Johvi wins. Recent scorelines: 4-2, 1-0, 4-2, 3-4, 3-3.

If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.

On form, JK Trans Narva U21 show L-L-D-L-L across their recent outings, while Phoenix Johvi read L-W-W-L-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 60%. The match profile leans toward a higher goal total.

Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Under 2.5" (O/U 2.5): we rate it 36% versus the 24% implied by odds of 4.20, an edge of 12.0 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, JK Trans Narva U21 or Phoenix Johvi?

Our model rates JK Trans Narva U21 as the most likely outcome at 52% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for JK Trans Narva U21 vs Phoenix Johvi?

A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 6 meetings: 2 JK Trans Narva U21 wins, 1 draws, 3 Phoenix Johvi wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

League table

Estonia. Esiliiga B
#TeamGPWLTGPts
1Tammeka Tartu U211283139:2425
2Phoenix Johvi1284031:3124
3Viljandi Tulevik1284039:2424
4Parnu Vaprus U211274133:2522
5FA Tartu Kalev1265127:2019
6JK Trans Narva U211265129:2019
7Levadia U191255228:2317
8Tabasalu1358021:3415
9Tallinna Kalev U211229122:307
10Legion Tallinna13210110:487
Promotion - Estonia. Esiliiga Promotion - Estonia. Esiliiga (Promotion) Estonia. Esiliiga B (Play-off) Relegation

Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.