Viljandi Tulevik vs Parnu Vaprus U21: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Viljandi Tulevikvs
Parnu Vaprus U21Our model leans Viljandi Tulevik (48% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +Recent form favours Viljandi Tulevik.
- +Viljandi Tulevik have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Expected goals
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Recent form favours Viljandi Tulevik.
- Viljandi Tulevik have home advantage.
- Goals outlook: an open game likely.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Viljandi Tulevik and Parnu Vaprus U21. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 48% for Viljandi Tulevik, 31% for the draw and 21% for Parnu Vaprus U21.
Several signals point toward Viljandi Tulevik. The odds point to a clear favourite. Recent form favours Viljandi Tulevik. Viljandi Tulevik have home advantage.
Across the last 1 meetings, the record reads 1 Viljandi Tulevik wins, 0 draws and 0 Parnu Vaprus U21 wins. Recent scorelines: 5-3.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Viljandi Tulevik show W-W-W-W-L across their recent outings, while Parnu Vaprus U21 read L-W-W-W-W. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 60%. The match profile leans toward a higher goal total.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Under 2.5" (O/U 2.5): we rate it 36% versus the 22% implied by odds of 4.50, an edge of 13.6 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Viljandi Tulevik or Parnu Vaprus U21?
Our model rates Viljandi Tulevik as the most likely outcome at 48% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Viljandi Tulevik vs Parnu Vaprus U21?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 1 Viljandi Tulevik wins, 0 draws, 0 Parnu Vaprus U21 wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Estonia. Esiliiga B| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tammeka Tartu U21 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 39:24 | 25 |
| 2 |  Phoenix Johvi | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 31:31 | 24 |
| 3 | Viljandi Tulevik | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 39:24 | 24 |
| 4 | Parnu Vaprus U21 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 33:25 | 22 |
| 5 |  FA Tartu Kalev | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 27:20 | 19 |
| 6 |  JK Trans Narva U21 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 29:20 | 19 |
| 7 |  Levadia U19 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 28:23 | 17 |
| 8 |  Tabasalu | 13 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 21:34 | 15 |
| 9 |  Tallinna Kalev U21 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 22:30 | 7 |
| 10 |  Legion Tallinna | 13 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 10:48 | 7 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.