Al-Zawra'a vs Al-Naft: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Our model leans Al-Zawra'a (43% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Al-Zawra'a (3-2-1).
- +Al-Zawra'a have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The head-to-head record favours Al-Zawra'a (3-2-1).
- Al-Zawra'a have home advantage.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Al-Zawra'a and Al-Naft. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 43% for Al-Zawra'a, 26% for the draw and 31% for Al-Naft.
Several signals point toward Al-Zawra'a. The head-to-head record favours Al-Zawra'a (3-2-1). Al-Zawra'a have home advantage.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 3 Al-Zawra'a wins, 2 draws and 1 Al-Naft wins. Recent scorelines: 0-0, 2-1, 3-1, 1-3, 1-1.
On form, Al-Zawra'a show L-D-W-W-D across their recent outings, while Al-Naft read D-D-L-D-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 52%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Al-Zawra'a or Al-Naft?
Our model rates Al-Zawra'a as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Al-Zawra'a wins, 2 draws, 1 Al-Naft wins.
Match statistics
Match story
How the game unfoldedCautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)
Al-Naft make it count (Moses A. (32')). It's 0–1 at this point.
Half-time score: Al-Zawra'a 0 – 1 Al-Naft.
The game settles after the break without a breakthrough. (0–1)
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (0–1)
League table
Iraq. Stars League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 36 | 25 | 3 | 8 | 57:26 | 83 | |
| 2 | 36 | 23 | 6 | 7 | 67:32 | 76 | |
| 3 | 36 | 21 | 5 | 10 | 54:30 | 73 | |
| 4 | 36 | 17 | 4 | 15 | 50:30 | 66 | |
| 5 | 36 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 51:36 | 63 | |
| 6 | 37 | 16 | 7 | 14 | 50:26 | 62 | |
| 7 | 36 | 16 | 9 | 11 | 50:38 | 59 | |
| 8 | 36 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 46:40 | 53 | |
| 9 | 36 | 16 | 15 | 5 | 46:44 | 53 | |
| 10 | 37 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 44:44 | 50 | |
| 11 | 37 | 12 | 15 | 10 | 39:42 | 46 | |
| 12 | 37 | 11 | 15 | 11 | 40:41 | 44 | |
| 13 | 36 | 10 | 13 | 13 | 42:48 | 43 | |
| 14 | 36 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 30:33 | 42 | |
| 15 | 36 | 10 | 16 | 10 | 46:55 | 40 | |
| 16 | 36 | 11 | 20 | 5 | 44:53 | 38 | |
| 17 | 36 | 9 | 16 | 11 | 37:46 | 38 | |
| 18 | 37 | 10 | 20 | 7 | 46:65 | 37 | |
| 19 | 35 | 4 | 26 | 5 | 28:67 | 17 | |
| 20 | 36 | 0 | 30 | 6 | 20:91 | 6 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.