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Iraq. Stars League

Al-Zawra'a vs Al-Naft: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

Al-Zawra'a Al-Zawra'avsAl-Naft Al-Naft
Our predictionAl-Zawra'a to win
Confidence: High · 61/100

Our model leans Al-Zawra'a (43% probability), high confidence.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

Win probabilities

1 · Al-Zawra'a43%
Draw26%
2 · Al-Naft31%
1 · Al-Zawra'aDraw2 · Al-Naft
Full team comparison

Recent form

Al-Zawra'aLDWWD
Al-NaftDDLDL
Team strength rating
Al-Zawra'a
55
Al-Naft
42

Most likely scorelines

1-112.2%
1-011.2%
2-19.3%
2-08.5%
0-18.0%
0-07.3%

Expected goals

1.53Al-Zawra'a
xG
1.09Al-Naft
Over 2.5 goals48%
Both teams to score52%

Match DNA

AttackDefenseFormStrengthH2HVenue
Al-Zawra'a Al-Naft

Key points

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A012345
07842
1111272
29952
3453
422
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Al-Zawra'a and Al-Naft. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 43% for Al-Zawra'a, 26% for the draw and 31% for Al-Naft.

Several signals point toward Al-Zawra'a. The head-to-head record favours Al-Zawra'a (3-2-1). Al-Zawra'a have home advantage.

Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 3 Al-Zawra'a wins, 2 draws and 1 Al-Naft wins. Recent scorelines: 0-0, 2-1, 3-1, 1-3, 1-1.

On form, Al-Zawra'a show L-D-W-W-D across their recent outings, while Al-Naft read D-D-L-D-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 52%. The totals market stays finely balanced.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Al-Zawra'a or Al-Naft?

Our model rates Al-Zawra'a as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 6 meetings: 3 Al-Zawra'a wins, 2 draws, 1 Al-Naft wins.

See odds at bookmakers

Match statistics

32'Moses A.
78'Unknown

Match story

How the game unfolded
0–15'00

Cautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)

15–45'01

Al-Naft make it count (Moses A. (32')). It's 0–1 at this point.

32'Moses A.
Half-time

Half-time score: Al-Zawra'a 0 – 1 Al-Naft.

45–75'01

The game settles after the break without a breakthrough. (0–1)

75–90'+01

A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (0–1)

78'Unknown
Full time: Al-Zawra'a 01 Al-Naft

League table

Iraq. Stars League
#TeamGPWLTGPts
1Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya36253857:2683
2Al-Shorta Baghdad36236767:3276
3Erbil362151054:3073
4Al-Zawra'a361741550:3066
5Al-Talaba36189951:3663
6Al-Karma371671450:2662
7Al-Karkh SC361691150:3859
8Zakho3614111146:4053
9Newroz Sulaymaniyah361615546:4453
10Duhok3713131144:4450
11Diyala3712151039:4246
12Al-Gharraf3711151140:4144
13Al Mosul3610131342:4843
14Al-Naft369121530:3342
15Naft Maysan3610161046:5540
16Al-Kahrabaa361120544:5338
17Al Minaa Basra369161137:4638
18Amanat Baghdad371020746:6537
19Al-Najaf35426528:6717
20Al-Qasim36030620:916
Promotion - Champions League (League stage) Stars League (Relegation - Play-off) Relegation

Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.