Unia Tarnow vs Wieczysta Krakow II: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Unia Tarnowvs
Wieczysta Krakow IIThe model forecasts a draw as the most probable outcome with 75% confidence, supported by bookmaker odds heavily favoring the stalemate at 1.198. While Unia Tarnow's home advantage provides some upside potential, the weight of evidence points to a 1-1 scoreline.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −Unia Tarnow have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Draw probability of 75% significantly outweighs home win (10%) and away win (15%)
- Bookmaker odds imply 75.7% draw probability, aligning with model consensus
- Unia Tarnow home advantage offers minor support for home victory, but remains a secondary signal
- Score hint of 1-1 reflects the draw lean; goal totals remain uncertain
- Draw odds of 1.198 offer limited value given the high implied probability
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Full analysis
The model's 75% confidence in a draw is the dominant signal here, backed by bookmaker pricing that implies a 75.7% probability of the stalemate. This near-unanimous consensus from both the analytical model and the market suggests Liga 4 dynamics or team-specific factors favor a balanced contest between Unia Tarnow and Wieczysta Krakow II.
Home advantage for Unia Tarnow does register as a supporting signal, but it carries limited weight given the overwhelming draw probability. The home-win odds of 9.8 and implied probability of just 9.3% indicate the market sees limited upside for the hosts, suggesting visiting Wieczysta Krakow II may be structurally competitive or defensively organized.
The 1-1 score hint aligns with the draw forecast, though the model provides no clear directional lean on total goals. The over 2.5 odds of 1.22 suggest moderate confidence in a low-scoring contest, consistent with a 1-1 outcome, but this remains speculative without explicit goal-total signals.
Bettors considering the draw should note that while 75% probability is substantial, odds of 1.198 heavily discount this outcome—offering limited margin of error and minimal value for risk-reward purposes. The away-win probability of 15% and home-win probability of 10% remain modest but non-negligible tail risks.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Unia Tarnow or Wieczysta Krakow II?
Our model rates the draw as the most likely outcome at 75% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Unia Tarnow vs Wieczysta Krakow II?
A scoreline around 1-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.