HJK vs MYPA: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
HJKvs
MYPAHJK are favoured at home in this Finnish Cup tie, supported by a perfect 6-0 head-to-head record and home advantage, though at 0.43 probability the outcome remains competitive with meaningful chances for both a draw and MYPA upset.
Why this prediction
- +The head-to-head record favours HJK (6-0-0).
- +HJK have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- HJK's dominant 6-0 head-to-head record is the strongest signal in favour of the home side
- Home advantage provides additional support for HJK despite mixed recent form (W-L-W-D-L)
- MYPA have won 1 of their last 5 away matches, suggesting they lack away consistency
- The model assigns 0.43 to HJK win, 0.31 to MYPA, and 0.25 to draw—no outcome is heavily favoured
- Recent H2H scores show volatility (ranging 0-1 to 4-0), indicating this fixture can be unpredictable
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
HJK's perfect 6-0 record against MYPA is compelling evidence of a significant quality gap or psychological edge. This historical dominance, combined with home-field advantage in a cup competition, provides the primary case for backing the hosts. The model reflects this with a 0.62 confidence rating on the home pick, well above the 0.43 win probability.
However, the actual win probability of 0.43 suggests caution. HJK's home form over their last five matches shows inconsistency (W-L-W-D-L), winning just two of five. This recent wobble tempers the historical advantage and explains why the model stops short of a strong favourite tag despite the H2H record.
MYPA's away record (L-L-W-L-W) mirrors this inconsistency—they have won only once in five away fixtures. The 0.31 probability assigned to an away victory reflects genuine vulnerability on the road, though their recent W result suggests they can compete. The 0.25 draw probability is meaningful and reflects the fixture's potential for stalemate.
The recent H2H score line variance (0-1, 2-0, 4-0, 2-1, 2-4) warns against overconfidence in any outcome. While HJK have won all six meetings, margins have been inconsistent and MYPA scored in multiple encounters, indicating they are capable of causing problems despite losing every time.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, HJK or MYPA?
Our model rates HJK as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 6 HJK wins, 0 draws, 0 MYPA wins.
Match statistics
Match story
How the game unfoldedHJK make it count (Mero (9')). It's 1–0 at this point.
HJK make it count (Unknown (16'), Kirilov (20'), Kirilov (23'), Borchers (26'), Borchers (32')). It's 6–0 at this point.
Half-time score: HJK 6 – 0 MYPA.
The game settles after the break without a breakthrough. (6–0)
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (6–0)
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.