Wissa Szczuczyn vs Warmia Grajewo: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Wissa Szczuczynvs
Warmia GrajewoThe model favors a draw at 42% probability in this Liga 4 matchup, though the 53% confidence level suggests genuine uncertainty. Wissa Szczuczyn's home advantage creates a secondary claim, but bookmaker odds align more closely with a stalemate.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −Wissa Szczuczyn have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Draw probability (42%) outpaces both home win (33%) and away win (25%)
- Bookmaker odds support draw outcome; home advantage presents moderate counter-signal
- Score hint of 1-1 aligns with draw thesis
- Confidence level of 53% indicates this is a close call with material uncertainty
- Over 2.5 goals odds at 1.31 suggest expectation of a relatively low-scoring match
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Full analysis
The model identifies a draw as the most probable outcome at 42%, materially ahead of a Wissa Szczuczyn home win (33%) and Warmia Grajewo away win (25%). This distribution reflects genuine competitive balance in this Liga 4 encounter, with no single outcome commanding dominant probability.
Bookmaker odds are the primary supporting signal for the draw, with 2.13 odds implying 42.6% probability—nearly identical to the model's draw assessment. This alignment suggests market consensus around a draw scenario. Conversely, home advantage for Wissa Szczuczyn (one of two signals tracked) pulls modestly toward a home victory, though not enough to overtake draw probability.
The score hint of 1-1 reinforces the draw thesis and suggests both teams are expected to contribute offensively at modest levels. The over 2.5 goals odds at 1.31 (high implied probability) appear inconsistent with a 1-1 prediction, warranting caution about total expectations.
At 53% confidence, this model assessment carries meaningful uncertainty—not a high-conviction call. This is a competitive Liga 4 fixture where a draw remains most likely, but backups to home and away outcomes retain realistic probability. Bettors should treat this as exploratory rather than definitive and apply responsible-gambling principles appropriate to mid-tier European football.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Wissa Szczuczyn or Warmia Grajewo?
Our model rates the draw as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Wissa Szczuczyn vs Warmia Grajewo?
A scoreline around 1-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
Detailed stats, lineups and the live match story will appear here once match data becomes available.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.