Ararat - Armenia vs Gandzasar: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Ararat - Armeniavs
GandzasarArarat - Armenia enters as the clear favorite at 43% win probability, underpinned by a perfect 6-0 head-to-head record and home advantage. However, at 62% confidence with moderate odds, this is not a high-conviction pick—Gandzasar's 31% win probability and recent away form warrant respect.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Ararat - Armenia (6-0-0).
- +Ararat - Armenia have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Ararat - Armenia's perfect 6-0 h2h record is a dominant signal, though sample size remains modest
- Home advantage adds structural edge; recent home form shows W-W-L-W-D pattern
- Gandzasar's away form (W-L-W-W-L) is mixed but not weak enough to dismiss outright
- Draw odds of 6.93 suggest undervaluation given historical and positional data
- Model confidence of 62% indicates a lean rather than a strong conviction
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The head-to-head record is striking: Ararat - Armenia has won all six previous meetings without a single draw. The recent scoreline variance (0-1, 1-0, 0-4, 3-0, 0-3) reflects some competitive tightness early in their rivalry, though the home team has won 5 of the last 5 meetings shown. This historical dominance is a primary pillar of the home-team case.
Ararat - Armenia's home advantage compounds the h2h edge. Their last five home matches produced two wins, one draw, and one loss, a record that tilts positive. Gandzasar's away form—two wins, two losses, and one draw in their last five—shows inconsistency without catastrophic weakness, suggesting they can compete even on the road.
The 62% confidence level is moderate, reflecting genuine uncertainty despite the favorable signals. A 43% home-win probability, while higher than the alternatives, still implies roughly a 57% chance of a non-home outcome. The odds available (6.93 for draw, 6.03 for away) may represent value for risk-tolerant backers if market pricing has overweighted recent h2h dominance relative to current form.
Gandzasar's 31% win probability is not negligible and reflects their ability to win away (as demonstrated in recent away form). Their upset potential is real, though the burden of the h2h record and away status is significant. The total absence of draws in the h2h series is notable but may not persist indefinitely.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Ararat - Armenia or Gandzasar?
Our model rates Ararat - Armenia as the most likely outcome at 43% probability.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 6 Ararat - Armenia wins, 0 draws, 0 Gandzasar wins.
Match statistics
League table
Armenia. Premier League| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ararat - Armenia | 26 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 49:25 | 57 |
| 2 |  Alashkert | 27 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 42:23 | 53 |
| 3 |  Noah Yerevan | 26 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 56:19 | 53 |
| 4 |  Pyunik | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 35:17 | 52 |
| 5 |  Urartu | 26 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 43:21 | 49 |
| 6 |  Van | 26 | 9 | 13 | 4 | 26:38 | 31 |
| 7 |  CSKA Yerevan | 27 | 4 | 12 | 11 | 30:42 | 23 |
| 8 | Gandzasar | 26 | 5 | 15 | 6 | 20:40 | 21 |
| 9 |  Ararat Yerevan | 27 | 3 | 20 | 4 | 21:63 | 13 |
| 10 |  Shirak | 27 | 2 | 18 | 7 | 17:51 | 13 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.