Floresta EC vs Confianca: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Floresta ECvs
ConfiancaOur model leans Confianca (38% probability), low confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Floresta EC.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Floresta EC have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Recent form favours Floresta EC.
- The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- Floresta EC have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Floresta EC and Confianca. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 35% for Floresta EC, 27% for the draw and 38% for Confianca.
Several signals point toward Confianca. Recent form favours Floresta EC.
Across the last 4 meetings, the record reads 2 Floresta EC wins, 0 draws and 2 Confianca wins. Recent scorelines: 1-0, 1-0, 3-1, 1-0.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-2 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Floresta EC show L-L-D-W-W across their recent outings, while Confianca read D-L-W-L-W. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Floresta EC or Confianca?
Our model rates Confianca as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Floresta EC vs Confianca?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 2 Floresta EC wins, 0 draws, 2 Confianca wins.
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro Série C - First stage| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paysandu | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15:9 | 17 |
| 2 |  Brusque | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13:7 | 17 |
| 3 |  Ituano | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 12:8 | 16 |
| 4 |  Guarani | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 15:7 | 15 |
| 5 |  Amazonas | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:7 | 13 |
| 6 |  Maringa Futebol Clube | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18:19 | 13 |
| 7 |  S.E.R. Caxias do Sul | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7:5 | 12 |
| 8 | Floresta EC | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10:9 | 12 |
| 9 |  Associacao Atletica Internacional | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9:8 | 12 |
| 10 |  Ferroviaria | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8:8 | 12 |
| 11 |  Santa Cruz PE | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7:6 | 11 |
| 12 |  Maranhao Atletico Clube | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9:11 | 11 |
| 13 |  Ypiranga | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 11:13 | 10 |
| 14 |  Barra | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10:7 | 10 |
| 15 |  Volta Redonda | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 5:9 | 8 |
| 16 |  Figueirense | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 6:12 | 8 |
| 17 | Confianca | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4:7 | 7 |
| 18 |  Botafogo da Paraíba | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 8:13 | 6 |
| 19 |  Associacao Olímpica de Itabaiana | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 20 |  Anápolis | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 6:13 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.