Botafogo da Paraíba vs Maringa Futebol Clube: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Our model leans Botafogo da Paraíba (36% probability), medium confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −Recent form favours Maringa Futebol Clube.
- +Botafogo da Paraíba have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Recent form favours Maringa Futebol Clube.
- Botafogo da Paraíba have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Botafogo da Paraíba and Maringa Futebol Clube. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 36% for Botafogo da Paraíba, 32% for the draw and 32% for Maringa Futebol Clube.
Several signals point toward Botafogo da Paraíba. The odds point to a clear favourite. Botafogo da Paraíba have home advantage.
Across the last 1 meetings, the record reads 0 Botafogo da Paraíba wins, 1 draws and 0 Maringa Futebol Clube wins. Recent scorelines: 1-1.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Botafogo da Paraíba show L-W-L-L-D across their recent outings, while Maringa Futebol Clube read D-W-W-L-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Maringa Futebol Clube" (1X2): we rate it 32% versus the 30% implied by odds of 3.00, an edge of 2.2 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Botafogo da Paraíba or Maringa Futebol Clube?
Our model rates Botafogo da Paraíba as the most likely outcome at 36% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Botafogo da Paraíba vs Maringa Futebol Clube?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 0 Botafogo da Paraíba wins, 1 draws, 0 Maringa Futebol Clube wins.
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro Série C - First stage| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15:9 | 17 | |
| 2 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13:7 | 17 | |
| 3 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 12:8 | 16 | |
| 4 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 15:7 | 15 | |
| 5 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 11:7 | 13 | |
| 6 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 18:19 | 13 | |
| 7 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7:5 | 12 | |
| 8 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10:9 | 12 | |
| 9 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9:8 | 12 | |
| 10 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 8:8 | 12 | |
| 11 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7:6 | 11 | |
| 12 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9:11 | 11 | |
| 13 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 11:13 | 10 | |
| 14 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10:7 | 10 | |
| 15 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 5:9 | 8 | |
| 16 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 6:12 | 8 | |
| 17 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4:7 | 7 | |
| 18 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 8:13 | 6 | |
| 19 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6:12 | 6 | |
| 20 | 8 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 6:13 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.