Tallinna Kalev U21 vs Tammeka Tartu U21: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Our model leans the draw (56% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −Recent form favours Tallinna Kalev U21.
- +The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- −Tallinna Kalev U21 have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Recent form favours Tallinna Kalev U21.
- The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- Tallinna Kalev U21 have home advantage.
- Goals outlook: an open game likely.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Tallinna Kalev U21 and Tammeka Tartu U21. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 26% for Tallinna Kalev U21, 56% for the draw and 18% for Tammeka Tartu U21.
Several signals point toward the draw. The odds point to a clear favourite. The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 3 Tallinna Kalev U21 wins, 0 draws and 3 Tammeka Tartu U21 wins. Recent scorelines: 3-2, 4-5, 5-0, 6-1, 5-1.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-2 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Tallinna Kalev U21 show D-W-L-W-W across their recent outings, while Tammeka Tartu U21 read L-D-L-L-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 64%. The match profile leans toward a higher goal total.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Under 2.5" (O/U 2.5): we rate it 36% versus the 24% implied by odds of 4.20, an edge of 12.3 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Tallinna Kalev U21 or Tammeka Tartu U21?
Our model rates the draw as the most likely outcome at 56% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Tallinna Kalev U21 vs Tammeka Tartu U21?
A scoreline around 2-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Tallinna Kalev U21 wins, 0 draws, 3 Tammeka Tartu U21 wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Estonia. Esiliiga B| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 39:24 | 25 | |
| 2 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 31:31 | 24 | |
| 3 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 39:24 | 24 | |
| 4 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 33:25 | 22 | |
| 5 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 27:20 | 19 | |
| 6 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 29:20 | 19 | |
| 7 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 28:23 | 17 | |
| 8 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 21:34 | 15 | |
| 9 | 12 | 2 | 9 | 1 | 22:30 | 7 | |
| 10 | 13 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 10:48 | 7 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.