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Estonia. Esiliiga B

Tallinna Kalev U21 vs Tammeka Tartu U21: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

Tallinna Kalev U21 Tallinna Kalev U21vsTammeka Tartu U21 Tammeka Tartu U21
Our predictionDraw
Confidence: High · 81/100
Score hint: 2-2

Our model leans the draw (56% probability), high confidence.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

Win probabilities

1 · Tallinna Kalev U2126%
Draw56%
2 · Tammeka Tartu U2118%
1 · Tallinna Kalev U21Draw2 · Tammeka Tartu U21
Full team comparison

Value radar

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.

O/U 2.5Under 2.54.20+12.3%
1X2Tallinna Kalev U214.11+3.4%
1X2Tammeka Tartu U214.80-1.2%
1X2Draw1.57-2.1%
O/U 2.5Over 2.51.19-20.1%
Our model BookmakerPositive edge = potential value. Not betting advice.

Recent form

Tallinna Kalev U21DWLWW
Tammeka Tartu U21LDLLL
Team strength rating
Tallinna Kalev U21
51
Tammeka Tartu U21
32

Expected goals

1.87Tallinna Kalev U21
xG
1.44Tammeka Tartu U21
Over 2.5 goals64%
Both teams to score64%

Most likely scorelines

1-19.8%
2-19.2%
1-27.1%
1-06.8%
2-26.6%
2-06.4%

Match DNA

AttackDefenseFormStrengthH2HVenue
Tallinna Kalev U21 Tammeka Tartu U21

Key points

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment
1X2Draw1.57Fair (-2.1%)
Total goalsOver 2.51.19Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A012345
04542
1710731
269731
34642
4232
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Tallinna Kalev U21 and Tammeka Tartu U21. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 26% for Tallinna Kalev U21, 56% for the draw and 18% for Tammeka Tartu U21.

Several signals point toward the draw. The odds point to a clear favourite. The head-to-head history is finely balanced.

Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 3 Tallinna Kalev U21 wins, 0 draws and 3 Tammeka Tartu U21 wins. Recent scorelines: 3-2, 4-5, 5-0, 6-1, 5-1.

If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-2 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.

On form, Tallinna Kalev U21 show D-W-L-W-W across their recent outings, while Tammeka Tartu U21 read L-D-L-L-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 64%. The match profile leans toward a higher goal total.

Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Under 2.5" (O/U 2.5): we rate it 36% versus the 24% implied by odds of 4.20, an edge of 12.3 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Tallinna Kalev U21 or Tammeka Tartu U21?

Our model rates the draw as the most likely outcome at 56% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Tallinna Kalev U21 vs Tammeka Tartu U21?

A scoreline around 2-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 6 meetings: 3 Tallinna Kalev U21 wins, 0 draws, 3 Tammeka Tartu U21 wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

League table

Estonia. Esiliiga B
#TeamGPWLTGPts
1Tammeka Tartu U211283139:2425
2Phoenix Johvi1284031:3124
3Viljandi Tulevik1284039:2424
4Parnu Vaprus U211274133:2522
5FA Tartu Kalev1265127:2019
6JK Trans Narva U211265129:2019
7Levadia U191255228:2317
8Tabasalu1358021:3415
9Tallinna Kalev U211229122:307
10Legion Tallinna13210110:487
Promotion - Estonia. Esiliiga Promotion - Estonia. Esiliiga (Promotion) Estonia. Esiliiga B (Play-off) Relegation

Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.