Fluminense Joinville vs Gremio Esportivo Juventus: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Our model leans the draw (86% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −Recent form favours Fluminense Joinville.
- −Fluminense Joinville have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Recent form favours Fluminense Joinville.
- Fluminense Joinville have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Fluminense Joinville and Gremio Esportivo Juventus. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 6% for Fluminense Joinville, 86% for the draw and 8% for Gremio Esportivo Juventus.
Several signals point toward the draw. The odds point to a clear favourite.
Across the last 1 meetings, the record reads 0 Fluminense Joinville wins, 1 draws and 0 Gremio Esportivo Juventus wins. Recent scorelines: 1-1.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Fluminense Joinville show L-D-W-W-L across their recent outings, while Gremio Esportivo Juventus read L-L-W-L-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Fluminense Joinville" (1X2): we rate it 6% versus the 2% implied by odds of 54.00, an edge of 4.0 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Fluminense Joinville or Gremio Esportivo Juventus?
Our model rates the draw as the most likely outcome at 86% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Fluminense Joinville vs Gremio Esportivo Juventus?
A scoreline around 1-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 0 Fluminense Joinville wins, 1 draws, 0 Gremio Esportivo Juventus wins.
Match statistics
Match story
How the game unfoldedCautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)
A controlled first-half spell with few clear chances. (0–0)
Half-time score: Fluminense Joinville 0 – 0 Gremio Esportivo Juventus.
Gremio Esportivo Juventus make it count (Unknown (54')). It's 0–1 at this point.
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (0–1)
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Catarinense. Second Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11:5 | 13 | |
| 2 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 9:3 | 13 | |
| 3 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 16:7 | 11 | |
| 4 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11:3 | 10 | |
| 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8:3 | 10 | |
| 6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6:5 | 10 | |
| 7 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8:7 | 9 | |
| 8 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3:11 | 7 | |
| 9 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2:10 | 4 | |
| 10 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 3:23 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.