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Brazil. Campeonato Catarinense. Second Division

Fluminense Joinville vs Gremio Esportivo Juventus: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

Fluminense Joinville Fluminense JoinvillevsGremio Esportivo Juventus Gremio Esportivo Juventus
Our predictionDraw
Confidence: High · 92/100
Score hint: 1-1

Our model leans the draw (86% probability), high confidence.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

Win probabilities

1 · Fluminense Joinville6%
Draw86%
2 · Gremio Esportivo Juventus8%
1 · Fluminense JoinvilleDraw2 · Gremio Esportivo Juventus
Full team comparison

Value radar

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.

1X2Fluminense Joinville54.00+4.0%
1X2Gremio Esportivo Juventus11.00-0.3%
1X2Draw1.03-3.7%
Our model BookmakerPositive edge = potential value. Not betting advice.
Team strength rating
Fluminense Joinville
30
Gremio Esportivo Juventus
25

Recent form

Fluminense JoinvilleLDWWL
Gremio Esportivo JuventusLLWLL

Most likely scorelines

1-112.6%
1-09.9%
0-19.4%
2-18.4%
1-27.9%
0-07.5%

Expected goals

1.33Fluminense Joinville
xG
1.26Gremio Esportivo Juventus
Over 2.5 goals48%
Both teams to score53%

Match DNA

AttackDefenseFormStrengthH2HVenue
Fluminense Joinville Gremio Esportivo Juventus

Key points

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment
1X2Draw1.03Fair (-3.7%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A012345
07963
11013831
27852
3342
41
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Fluminense Joinville and Gremio Esportivo Juventus. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 6% for Fluminense Joinville, 86% for the draw and 8% for Gremio Esportivo Juventus.

Several signals point toward the draw. The odds point to a clear favourite.

Across the last 1 meetings, the record reads 0 Fluminense Joinville wins, 1 draws and 0 Gremio Esportivo Juventus wins. Recent scorelines: 1-1.

If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.

On form, Fluminense Joinville show L-D-W-W-L across their recent outings, while Gremio Esportivo Juventus read L-L-W-L-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The totals market stays finely balanced.

Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Fluminense Joinville" (1X2): we rate it 6% versus the 2% implied by odds of 54.00, an edge of 4.0 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Fluminense Joinville or Gremio Esportivo Juventus?

Our model rates the draw as the most likely outcome at 86% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Fluminense Joinville vs Gremio Esportivo Juventus?

A scoreline around 1-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 1 meetings: 0 Fluminense Joinville wins, 1 draws, 0 Gremio Esportivo Juventus wins.

See odds at bookmakers

Match statistics

54
Possession
46
6
Total shots
2
1
Shots on target
1
3
Corners
3
54'Unknown

Match story

How the game unfolded
0–15'00

Cautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)

15–45'00

A controlled first-half spell with few clear chances. (0–0)

Half-time

Half-time score: Fluminense Joinville 0 – 0 Gremio Esportivo Juventus.

45–75'01

Gremio Esportivo Juventus make it count (Unknown (54')). It's 0–1 at this point.

54'Unknown
75–90'+01

A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (0–1)

Full time: Fluminense Joinville 01 Gremio Esportivo Juventus

League table

Brazil. Campeonato Catarinense. Second Division
#TeamGPWLTGPts
1Clube Atletico Metropolitano Blumenau742111:513
2Blumenau74219:313
3Caravaggio Nova Veneza631216:711
4Hercílio Luz632111:310
5Tubarao62048:310
6Fluminense Joinville63216:510
7Nacao Esportes62138:79
8Guarani de Palhoca72413:117
9Gremio Esportivo Juventus61412:104
10Jaragua SC70613:231
Promotion - Brazil. Campeonato Catarinense Relegation - Brazil. Campeonato Catarinense. Division 3

Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.