Caravaggio Nova Veneza vs Nacao Esportes: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Caravaggio Nova Venezavs
Nacao EsportesOur model leans Caravaggio Nova Veneza (42% probability), medium confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Caravaggio Nova Veneza.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +Caravaggio Nova Veneza have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Recent form favours Caravaggio Nova Veneza.
- The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- Caravaggio Nova Veneza have home advantage.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Caravaggio Nova Veneza and Nacao Esportes. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 42% for Caravaggio Nova Veneza, 27% for the draw and 31% for Nacao Esportes.
Several signals point toward Caravaggio Nova Veneza. Recent form favours Caravaggio Nova Veneza. Caravaggio Nova Veneza have home advantage.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 2 Caravaggio Nova Veneza wins, 1 draws and 3 Nacao Esportes wins. Recent scorelines: 1-0, 1-0, 3-3, 4-1, 0-1.
On form, Caravaggio Nova Veneza show D-W-L-D-W across their recent outings, while Nacao Esportes read L-D-D-L-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 52%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Caravaggio Nova Veneza or Nacao Esportes?
Our model rates Caravaggio Nova Veneza as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Caravaggio Nova Veneza wins, 1 draws, 3 Nacao Esportes wins.
Match statistics
Match story
How the game unfoldedCautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)
Caravaggio Nova Veneza make it count (Unknown (22'), Unknown (34')). It's 2–0 at this point.
Half-time score: Caravaggio Nova Veneza 2 – 0 Nacao Esportes.
Caravaggio Nova Veneza make it count (Unknown (52')). It's 3–0 at this point.
An end-to-end spell with goals at both ends (Unknown (79'), Unknown (80')). Score moves to 4–1.
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Catarinense. Second Division| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Clube Atletico Metropolitano Blumenau | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11:5 | 13 |
| 2 |  Blumenau | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 9:3 | 13 |
| 3 | Caravaggio Nova Veneza | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 16:7 | 11 |
| 4 |  Hercílio Luz | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11:3 | 10 |
| 5 |  Tubarao | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8:3 | 10 |
| 6 |  Fluminense Joinville | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6:5 | 10 |
| 7 | Nacao Esportes | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8:7 | 9 |
| 8 |  Guarani de Palhoca | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3:11 | 7 |
| 9 |  Gremio Esportivo Juventus | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2:10 | 4 |
| 10 |  Jaragua SC | 7 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 3:23 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.