Iraq. Stars League

Zakho vs Erbil: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

Zakhovs

Erbil

Our predictionZakho to win

Confidence: Medium · 39/100

Our model leans Zakho (42% probability), medium confidence.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

+The head-to-head record favours Zakho (4-1-1).
−Recent form favours Erbil.
+Zakho have home advantage.

Win probabilities

1 · Zakho42%

Draw24%

2 · Erbil34%

1 · ZakhoDraw2 · Erbil

Full team comparison →

Recent form

ZakhoDLDWL

ErbilWWWDL

Team strength rating

Zakho

Erbil

Most likely scorelines

1-112.3%

1-010.9%

2-19.1%

0-18.3%

2-08.0%

0-07.3%

Expected goals

1.48Zakho

1.13Erbil

Over 2.5 goals48%

Both teams to score52%

Match DNA

Zakho Erbil

Key points

The head-to-head record favours Zakho (4-1-1).
Recent form favours Erbil.
Zakho have home advantage.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A	0	1	2	3
0	7	8	5	2
1	11	12	7	3
2	8	9	5	2
3	4	4	3
4	1	2
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Zakho and Erbil. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 42% for Zakho, 24% for the draw and 34% for Erbil.

Several signals point toward Zakho. The head-to-head record favours Zakho (4-1-1). Zakho have home advantage.

Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 4 Zakho wins, 1 draws and 1 Erbil wins. Recent scorelines: 0-1, 0-0, 3-1, 2-1, 0-2.

On form, Zakho show D-L-D-W-L across their recent outings, while Erbil read W-W-W-D-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 52%. The totals market stays finely balanced.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Zakho or Erbil?

Our model rates Zakho as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 6 meetings: 4 Zakho wins, 1 draws, 1 Erbil wins.

See odds at bookmakers

Match statistics

11'⚽Barco

62'•Barco

Attwan⚽73'

Match story

How the game unfolded

0–15'0–1

Erbil make it count (Barco (11')). It's 0–1 at this point.

11'⚽Barco

15–45'0–1

A controlled first-half spell with few clear chances. (0–1)

Half-time

Half-time score: Zakho 0 – 1 Erbil.

45–75'1–1

Zakho make it count (Attwan (73')). It's 1–1 at this point.

62'•Barco73'⚽Attwan

75–90'+1–1

A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (1–1)

Full time: Zakho 1 – 1 Erbil

League table

Iraq. Stars League

#	Team	GP	W	L	T	G	Pts
1	Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya	36	25	3	8	57:26	83
2	Al-Shorta Baghdad	36	23	6	7	67:32	76
3	Erbil	36	21	5	10	54:30	73
4	Al-Zawra'a	37	17	5	15	50:31	66
5	Al-Talaba	36	18	9	9	51:36	63
6	Al-Karma	37	16	7	14	50:26	62
7	Al-Karkh SC	36	16	9	11	50:38	59
8	Newroz Sulaymaniyah	37	16	15	6	47:45	54
9	Zakho	36	14	11	11	46:40	53
10	Duhok	37	13	13	11	44:44	50
11	Diyala	37	12	15	10	39:42	46
12	Al-Naft	37	10	12	15	31:33	45
13	Al-Gharraf	37	11	15	11	40:41	44
14	Al Mosul	37	10	13	14	43:49	44
15	Naft Maysan	36	10	16	10	46:55	40
16	Al-Kahrabaa	36	11	20	5	44:53	38
17	Al Minaa Basra	36	9	16	11	37:46	38
18	Amanat Baghdad	37	10	20	7	46:65	37
19	Al-Najaf	35	4	26	5	28:67	17
20	Al-Qasim	36	0	30	6	20:91	6