Nice vs AS Saint-Etienne: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Nicevs
AS Saint-EtienneOur model leans Nice (51% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +The head-to-head record favours Nice (5-1-0).
- −Nice are dealing with notable absentees.
- +AS Saint-Etienne are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Nice have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours Nice (5-1-0).
- Nice are dealing with notable absentees.
- AS Saint-Etienne are dealing with notable absentees.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Nice and AS Saint-Etienne. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 51% for Nice, 21% for the draw and 28% for AS Saint-Etienne.
Several signals point toward Nice. The odds point to a clear favourite. The head-to-head record favours Nice (5-1-0). AS Saint-Etienne are dealing with notable absentees.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 5 Nice wins, 1 draws and 0 AS Saint-Etienne wins. Recent scorelines: 0-0, 2-1, 1-3, 8-0, 4-2.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Nice show D-L-D-L-D across their recent outings, while AS Saint-Etienne read D-L-L-L-W. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 50%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Nice" (1X2): we rate it 51% versus the 48% implied by odds of 1.98, an edge of 3.0 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Nice or AS Saint-Etienne?
Our model rates Nice as the most likely outcome at 51% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Nice vs AS Saint-Etienne?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 5 Nice wins, 1 draws, 0 AS Saint-Etienne wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.