Zenit Saint Petersburg vs Spartak Moscow: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Zenit Saint Petersburgvs
Spartak MoscowThe model puts Zenit Saint Petersburg at 47%. The model leans toward Zenit Saint Petersburg. Confidence: medium.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Zenit Saint Petersburg.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Zenit Saint Petersburg have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Spartak Moscow have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Zenit Saint Petersburg have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Zenit Saint Petersburg is priced at 2.12.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Zenit Saint Petersburg at 47%. The model puts the draw at 28%. The model puts Spartak Moscow at 25%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Zenit Saint Petersburg. Zenit Saint Petersburg is priced at 2.12. The draw is priced at 3.32. Spartak Moscow is priced at 3.54.
Zenit Saint Petersburg have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Spartak Moscow have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 2 of their head-to-head meetings.
Zenit Saint Petersburg have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Spartak Moscow have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
The model gives 50% for both teams to score. The model gives 49% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Zenit Saint Petersburg or Spartak Moscow?
Our model rates Zenit Saint Petersburg as the most likely outcome at 47% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Zenit Saint Petersburg vs Spartak Moscow?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Zenit Saint Petersburg wins, 2 draws, 2 Spartak Moscow wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.