Dock Sud vs Club Atletico Brown: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Our model leans the draw (84% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −The head-to-head record favours Club Atletico Brown (0-1-1).
- −Recent form favours Dock Sud.
- −Dock Sud have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours Club Atletico Brown (0-1-1).
- Recent form favours Dock Sud.
- Dock Sud have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Dock Sud and Club Atletico Brown. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 6% for Dock Sud, 84% for the draw and 10% for Club Atletico Brown.
Several signals point toward the draw. The odds point to a clear favourite.
Across the last 2 meetings, the record reads 0 Dock Sud wins, 1 draws and 1 Club Atletico Brown wins. Recent scorelines: 1-3, 1-1.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Dock Sud show W-D-D-W-W across their recent outings, while Club Atletico Brown read L-L-L-D-D. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Dock Sud" (1X2): we rate it 6% versus the 1% implied by odds of 134.00, an edge of 4.8 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Dock Sud or Club Atletico Brown?
Our model rates the draw as the most likely outcome at 84% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Dock Sud vs Club Atletico Brown?
A scoreline around 1-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 2 meetings: 0 Dock Sud wins, 1 draws, 1 Club Atletico Brown wins.
Match statistics
Match story
How the game unfoldedCautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)
Club Atletico Brown make it count (Rodriguez (20')). It's 0–1 at this point.
Half-time score: Dock Sud 0 – 1 Club Atletico Brown.
The game settles after the break without a breakthrough. (0–1)
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (0–1)
League table
Argentina. Primera B Metropolitana| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 24:8 | 34 | |
| 2 | 17 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 22:9 | 33 | |
| 3 | 17 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 19:8 | 33 | |
| 4 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 22:11 | 32 | |
| 5 | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 15:8 | 31 | |
| 6 | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 18:13 | 30 | |
| 7 | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 20:19 | 27 | |
| 8 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 18:15 | 26 | |
| 9 | 17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 20:15 | 25 | |
| 10 | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 20:19 | 25 | |
| 11 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 18:14 | 22 | |
| 12 | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 15:21 | 20 | |
| 13 | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 11:17 | 20 | |
| 14 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 16:17 | 19 | |
| 15 | 17 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 10:15 | 19 | |
| 16 | 17 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 13:20 | 19 | |
| 17 | 17 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 16:24 | 18 | |
| 18 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 15:18 | 16 | |
| 19 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 9:13 | 16 | |
| 20 | 17 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 9:20 | 15 | |
| 21 | 17 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 19:25 | 14 | |
| 22 | 17 | 0 | 12 | 5 | 10:30 | 5 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.