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Iraq. Stars League

Al-Qasim vs Al-Najaf: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

Al-Qasim Al-QasimvsAl-Najaf Al-Najaf
Our predictionAl-Qasim to win
Confidence: Low · 28/100

Our model leans Al-Qasim (40% probability), low confidence.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

Win probabilities

1 · Al-Qasim40%
Draw25%
2 · Al-Najaf35%
1 · Al-QasimDraw2 · Al-Najaf
Full team comparison

Recent form

Al-QasimWDLDD
Al-NajafLWDWD
Team strength rating
Al-Qasim
52
Al-Najaf
54

Most likely scorelines

1-112.4%
1-010.6%
2-18.9%
0-18.6%
2-07.6%
0-07.4%

Expected goals

1.44Al-Qasim
xG
1.17Al-Najaf
Over 2.5 goals48%
Both teams to score52%

Match DNA

AttackDefenseFormStrengthH2HVenue
Al-Qasim Al-Najaf

Key points

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A012345
07952
1111273
28952
3442
412
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Al-Qasim and Al-Najaf. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 40% for Al-Qasim, 25% for the draw and 35% for Al-Najaf.

Several signals point toward Al-Qasim. Recent form favours Al-Najaf. Al-Qasim have home advantage.

Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 0 Al-Qasim wins, 2 draws and 4 Al-Najaf wins. Recent scorelines: 1-1, 1-2, 1-0, 1-2, 1-0.

On form, Al-Qasim show W-D-L-D-D across their recent outings, while Al-Najaf read L-W-D-W-D. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 52%. The totals market stays finely balanced.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Al-Qasim or Al-Najaf?

Our model rates Al-Qasim as the most likely outcome at 40% probability.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 6 meetings: 0 Al-Qasim wins, 2 draws, 4 Al-Najaf wins.

See odds at bookmakers

Match statistics

0
Yellow cards
1
Unknown5'
42'🟥Unknown
Unknown🟥68'
74'Cruz Moreno
90+9'Unknown
90+11'Unknown

Match story

How the game unfolded
0–15'10

Al-Qasim make it count (Unknown (5')). It's 1–0 at this point.

5'Unknown
15–45'10

No goals but plenty of bite: 1 card(s) in this spell. Score holds at 1–0.

42'🟥Unknown
Half-time

Half-time score: Al-Qasim 1 – 0 Al-Najaf.

45–75'11

Al-Najaf make it count (Cruz Moreno (74')). It's 1–1 at this point.

68'🟥Unknown74'Cruz Moreno
75–90'+13

Al-Najaf make it count (Unknown (90+9'), Unknown (90+11')). It's 1–3 at this point.

90+9'Unknown90+11'Unknown
Full time: Al-Qasim 13 Al-Najaf

League table

Iraq. Stars League
#TeamGPWLTGPts
1Al-Quwa Al-Jawiya36253857:2683
2Al-Shorta Baghdad36236767:3276
3Erbil362151054:3073
4Al-Zawra'a371751550:3166
5Al-Talaba36189951:3663
6Al-Karma371671450:2662
7Al-Karkh SC361691150:3859
8Newroz Sulaymaniyah371615647:4554
9Zakho3614111146:4053
10Duhok3713131144:4450
11Diyala3712151039:4246
12Al-Naft3710121531:3345
13Al-Gharraf3711151140:4144
14Al Mosul3710131443:4944
15Naft Maysan3610161046:5540
16Al-Kahrabaa361120544:5338
17Al Minaa Basra369161137:4638
18Amanat Baghdad371020746:6537
19Al-Najaf35426528:6717
20Al-Qasim36030620:916
Promotion - Champions League (League stage) Stars League (Relegation - Play-off) Relegation

Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.