Chapecoense vs Flamengo: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Chapecoensevs
FlamengoThe model puts Flamengo at 64%. The model leans toward Flamengo. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Flamengo score more per game (1.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- +The head-to-head record favours Flamengo (1-1-4).
- −Chapecoense creates more chances (16 vs 13 shots per game).
- +Flamengo controls more of the ball (46% vs 54%).
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Chapecoense have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Flamengo have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Chapecoense have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Flamengo is priced at 1.49.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 2 |
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | ||||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Full analysis
The model puts Chapecoense at 16%. The model puts the draw at 20%. The model puts Flamengo at 64%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-2.
The market leans toward Flamengo. Chapecoense is priced at 6.8. The draw is priced at 4.26. Flamengo is priced at 1.49.
Chapecoense have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. Flamengo have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Chapecoense have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Chapecoense are on 2 wins in a row. Flamengo have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Chapecoense average 1 goals per game this season. Chapecoense average 46% possession. Flamengo average 2 goals per game this season. Flamengo average 54% possession.
The model gives 47% for both teams to score. The model gives 54% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Chapecoense or Flamengo?
Our model rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 64% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Chapecoense vs Flamengo?
A scoreline around 0-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 1 Chapecoense wins, 1 draws, 4 Flamengo wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 30:13 | 41 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 31:16 | 34 |
| 3 |  Fluminense | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 28:23 | 31 |
| 4 |  Clube Atletico Paranaense | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 24:18 | 30 |
| 5 |  Red Bull Bragantino | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 25:19 | 29 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 25:23 | 26 |
| 7 |  Coritiba | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 24:24 | 26 |
| 8 |  Sao Paulo | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 23:20 | 25 |
| 9 |  Clube Atletico Mineiro | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 22:23 | 24 |
| 10 |  Corinthians Paulista | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 18:19 | 24 |
| 11 |  Cruzeiro Esporte Clube | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 24:28 | 24 |
| 12 |  Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 31:31 | 22 |
| 13 |  EC Vitoria Salvador | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 21:25 | 22 |
| 14 |  Sport Club Internacional | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 21:22 | 21 |
| 15 |  Santos | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 26:29 | 21 |
| 16 |  Gremio Porto Alegrense | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 20:23 | 21 |
| 17 |  CR Vasco da Gama | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 22:29 | 20 |
| 18 |  Clube do Remo | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 21:29 | 18 |
| 19 |  Mirassol | 17 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 18:24 | 16 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 17 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 17:33 | 9 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.