Sao Paulo vs Clube Atletico Paranaense: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sao Paulovs
Clube Atletico ParanaenseThe model puts Sao Paulo at 52%. The model leans toward Sao Paulo. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Sao Paulo score more per game (2.0 at home vs 1.0 away).
- +The head-to-head record favours Sao Paulo (4-1-1).
- +Sao Paulo creates more chances (14 vs 11 shots per game).
- +Sao Paulo controls more of the ball (51% vs 45%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- Sao Paulo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Clube Atletico Paranaense have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sao Paulo have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Sao Paulo is priced at 2.016.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Sao Paulo at 52%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Clube Atletico Paranaense at 22%. The model's most likely scoreline is 1-0.
The market leans toward Sao Paulo. Sao Paulo is priced at 2.016. The draw is priced at 3.26. Clube Atletico Paranaense is priced at 3.96.
Sao Paulo have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings. Clube Atletico Paranaense have won 1 of the head-to-head meetings. The sides have drawn 1 of their head-to-head meetings.
Sao Paulo have 1 wins in their last 5 matches. Clube Atletico Paranaense have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
Sao Paulo average 2 goals per game this season. Sao Paulo average 51% possession. Clube Atletico Paranaense average 1 goals per game this season. Clube Atletico Paranaense average 45% possession.
The model gives 53% for both teams to score. The model gives 56% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sao Paulo or Clube Atletico Paranaense?
Our model rates Sao Paulo as the most likely outcome at 52% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sao Paulo vs Clube Atletico Paranaense?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 4 Sao Paulo wins, 1 draws, 1 Clube Atletico Paranaense wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 30:13 | 41 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 31:16 | 34 |
| 3 |  Fluminense | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 28:23 | 31 |
| 4 | Clube Atletico Paranaense | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 24:18 | 30 |
| 5 |  Red Bull Bragantino | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 25:19 | 29 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 25:23 | 26 |
| 7 |  Coritiba | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 24:24 | 26 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 23:20 | 25 |
| 9 |  Clube Atletico Mineiro | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 22:23 | 24 |
| 10 |  Corinthians Paulista | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 18:19 | 24 |
| 11 |  Cruzeiro Esporte Clube | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 24:28 | 24 |
| 12 |  Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 31:31 | 22 |
| 13 |  EC Vitoria Salvador | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 21:25 | 22 |
| 14 |  Sport Club Internacional | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 21:22 | 21 |
| 15 |  Santos | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 26:29 | 21 |
| 16 |  Gremio Porto Alegrense | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 20:23 | 21 |
| 17 |  CR Vasco da Gama | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 22:29 | 20 |
| 18 |  Clube do Remo | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 21:29 | 18 |
| 19 |  Mirassol | 17 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 18:24 | 16 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense | 17 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 17:33 | 9 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.