Coritiba vs Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Coritibavs
Sociedade Esportiva PalmeirasThe model puts Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras at 49%. The model leans toward Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras. Confidence: high.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras.
- +Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras score more per game (1.0 at home vs 2.0 away).
- +The head-to-head record favours Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras (2-0-4).
- +Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras controls more of the ball (39% vs 48%).
Win probabilities
Model vs market
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply. This is model disagreement, not proven value — we do not yet publish historical profitability.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- Coritiba have 2 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras have 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
- Coritiba have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings.
- Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras is priced at 2.15.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. A positive edge means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies — model disagreement, not proven value. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model puts Coritiba at 24%. The model puts the draw at 26%. The model puts Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras at 49%. The model's most likely scoreline is 0-1.
The market leans toward Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras. Coritiba is priced at 3.62. The draw is priced at 3.2. Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras is priced at 2.15.
Coritiba have won 2 of the head-to-head meetings. Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras have won 4 of the head-to-head meetings.
Coritiba have 2 wins in their last 5 matches. Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras have 3 wins in their last 5 matches. Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras are on 3 wins in a row.
Coritiba average 1 goals per game this season. Coritiba average 39% possession. Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras average 2 goals per game this season. Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras average 48% possession.
The model gives 56% for both teams to score. The model gives 55% for over 2.5 goals.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Coritiba or Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras?
Our model rates Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras as the most likely outcome at 49% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Coritiba vs Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 Coritiba wins, 0 draws, 4 Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie A| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sociedade Esportiva Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 30:13 | 41 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 31:16 | 34 |
| 3 |  Fluminense | 18 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 28:23 | 31 |
| 4 |  Clube Atletico Paranaense | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 24:18 | 30 |
| 5 |  Red Bull Bragantino | 18 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 25:19 | 29 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 25:23 | 26 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 24:24 | 26 |
| 8 |  Sao Paulo | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 23:20 | 25 |
| 9 |  Clube Atletico Mineiro | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 22:23 | 24 |
| 10 |  Corinthians Paulista | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 18:19 | 24 |
| 11 |  Cruzeiro Esporte Clube | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 24:28 | 24 |
| 12 |  Botafogo de Futebol e Regatas | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 31:31 | 22 |
| 13 |  EC Vitoria Salvador | 17 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 21:25 | 22 |
| 14 |  Sport Club Internacional | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 21:22 | 21 |
| 15 |  Santos | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 26:29 | 21 |
| 16 |  Gremio Porto Alegrense | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 20:23 | 21 |
| 17 |  CR Vasco da Gama | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 22:29 | 20 |
| 18 |  Clube do Remo | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 21:29 | 18 |
| 19 |  Mirassol | 17 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 18:24 | 16 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense | 17 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 17:33 | 9 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.