Spartak Tambov vs Salyut Belgorod: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Our model leans Spartak Tambov (82% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +Recent form favours Spartak Tambov.
- −The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- +Spartak Tambov have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Recent form favours Spartak Tambov.
- The head-to-head history is finely balanced.
- Spartak Tambov have home advantage.
- Goals outlook: a tight, low-scoring game likely.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 19 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 19 | 7 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 13 | 4 | ||||
| 4 | 7 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 3 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Spartak Tambov and Salyut Belgorod. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 82% for Spartak Tambov, 5% for the draw and 13% for Salyut Belgorod.
Several signals point toward Spartak Tambov. The odds point to a clear favourite. Recent form favours Spartak Tambov. Spartak Tambov have home advantage.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 3 Spartak Tambov wins, 0 draws and 3 Salyut Belgorod wins. Recent scorelines: 1-3, 1-4, 4-2, 2-1, 3-2.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-0 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Spartak Tambov show W-L-W-L-D across their recent outings, while Salyut Belgorod read D-L-W-W-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 42% and both teams to score at 25%. The profile leans toward a tighter, lower-scoring game.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Over 2.5" (O/U 2.5): we rate it 42% versus the 17% implied by odds of 5.97, an edge of 25.2 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Spartak Tambov or Salyut Belgorod?
Our model rates Spartak Tambov as the most likely outcome at 82% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Spartak Tambov vs Salyut Belgorod?
A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Spartak Tambov wins, 0 draws, 3 Salyut Belgorod wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Match statistics
Match story
How the game unfoldedCautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)
Spartak Tambov make it count (Гурченко (34')). It's 1–0 at this point.
Half-time score: Spartak Tambov 1 – 0 Salyut Belgorod.
The game settles after the break without a breakthrough. (1–0)
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (1–0)
League table
Russian Championship. League 2. Division B. Group 3| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 25:5 | 27 | |
| 2 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 19:3 | 25 | |
| 3 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 17:7 | 20 | |
| 4 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 20:11 | 18 | |
| 5 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12:9 | 16 | |
| 6 | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17:15 | 16 | |
| 7 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13:12 | 15 | |
| 8 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 16:11 | 12 | |
| 9 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13:14 | 12 | |
| 10 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 12:18 | 10 | |
| 11 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 18:21 | 10 | |
| 12 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 7:16 | 10 | |
| 13 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 10:16 | 8 | |
| 14 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 9:18 | 7 | |
| 15 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 9:21 | 6 | |
| 16 | 10 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 8:28 | 2 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.