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Russian Championship. League 2. Division B. Group 3

Spartak Tambov vs Salyut Belgorod: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

Spartak Tambov Spartak TambovvsSalyut Belgorod Salyut Belgorod
Our predictionSpartak Tambov to win
Confidence: High · 92/100
Score hint: 1-0

Our model leans Spartak Tambov (82% probability), high confidence.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

Win probabilities

1 · Spartak Tambov82%
Draw5%
2 · Salyut Belgorod13%
1 · Spartak TambovDraw2 · Salyut Belgorod
Full team comparison

Value radar

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.

O/U 2.5Over 2.55.97+25.2%
1X2Draw27.00+1.5%
1X2Spartak Tambov1.12-0.7%
1X2Salyut Belgorod6.59-0.8%
O/U 2.5Under 2.51.10-33.2%
Our model BookmakerPositive edge = potential value. Not betting advice.

Recent form

Spartak TambovWLWLD
Salyut BelgorodDLWWL
Team strength rating
Spartak Tambov
84
Salyut Belgorod
39

Expected goals

2.04Spartak Tambov
xG
0.34Salyut Belgorod
Over 2.5 goals42%
Both teams to score25%

Most likely scorelines

2-019.2%
1-018.9%
3-013.0%
0-09.3%
4-06.6%
2-16.6%

Match DNA

AttackDefenseFormStrengthH2HVenue
Spartak Tambov Salyut Belgorod

Key points

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment
1X2Spartak Tambov win1.12Fair (-0.7%)
Total goalsUnder 2.51.10Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A012345
093
11961
21971
3134
472
53

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Spartak Tambov and Salyut Belgorod. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 82% for Spartak Tambov, 5% for the draw and 13% for Salyut Belgorod.

Several signals point toward Spartak Tambov. The odds point to a clear favourite. Recent form favours Spartak Tambov. Spartak Tambov have home advantage.

Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 3 Spartak Tambov wins, 0 draws and 3 Salyut Belgorod wins. Recent scorelines: 1-3, 1-4, 4-2, 2-1, 3-2.

If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-0 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.

On form, Spartak Tambov show W-L-W-L-D across their recent outings, while Salyut Belgorod read D-L-W-W-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 42% and both teams to score at 25%. The profile leans toward a tighter, lower-scoring game.

Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Over 2.5" (O/U 2.5): we rate it 42% versus the 17% implied by odds of 5.97, an edge of 25.2 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Spartak Tambov or Salyut Belgorod?

Our model rates Spartak Tambov as the most likely outcome at 82% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Spartak Tambov vs Salyut Belgorod?

A scoreline around 1-0 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 6 meetings: 3 Spartak Tambov wins, 0 draws, 3 Salyut Belgorod wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

Match statistics

Гурченко34'

Match story

How the game unfolded
0–15'00

Cautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)

15–45'10

Spartak Tambov make it count (Гурченко (34')). It's 1–0 at this point.

34'Гурченко
Half-time

Half-time score: Spartak Tambov 1 – 0 Salyut Belgorod.

45–75'10

The game settles after the break without a breakthrough. (1–0)

75–90'+10

A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (1–0)

Full time: Spartak Tambov 10 Salyut Belgorod

League table

Russian Championship. League 2. Division B. Group 3
#TeamGPWLTGPts
1Volna Kovernino1091025:527
2Spartak Tambov980119:325
3Ryazan1050517:720
4Metallurg Lipetsk1052320:1118
5Avangard Kursk1042412:916
6Shumbrat Saransk953117:1516
7Saturn Ramenskoye1043313:1215
8Salyut Belgorod933316:1112
9Oryol933313:1412
10Rodina Moscow III1036112:1810
11SKA-Khabarovsk II1036118:2110
12Rotor Volgograd II103617:1610
13Arsenal Tula II925210:168
14Zenit Penza92619:187
15Strogino Moscow101639:216
16Kvant Obninsk100828:282
Promotion Relegation

Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.