Rio Branco AC ES vs Vilavelhense: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Rio Branco AC ESvs
VilavelhenseOur model leans Rio Branco AC ES (42% probability), medium confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The head-to-head record favours Rio Branco AC ES (3-2-1).
- −Recent form favours Vilavelhense.
- +Rio Branco AC ES have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- The head-to-head record favours Rio Branco AC ES (3-2-1).
- Recent form favours Vilavelhense.
- Rio Branco AC ES have home advantage.
- Goals outlook: a tight, low-scoring game likely.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 13 | 13 | 7 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Rio Branco AC ES and Vilavelhense. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 42% for Rio Branco AC ES, 25% for the draw and 34% for Vilavelhense.
Several signals point toward Rio Branco AC ES. The head-to-head record favours Rio Branco AC ES (3-2-1). Rio Branco AC ES have home advantage.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 3 Rio Branco AC ES wins, 2 draws and 1 Vilavelhense wins. Recent scorelines: 1-4, 0-0, 1-0, 3-3, 3-0.
On form, Rio Branco AC ES show L-W-L-L-D across their recent outings, while Vilavelhense read W-W-L-L-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 41% and both teams to score at 46%. The profile leans toward a tighter, lower-scoring game.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Rio Branco AC ES or Vilavelhense?
Our model rates Rio Branco AC ES as the most likely outcome at 42% probability.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Rio Branco AC ES wins, 2 draws, 1 Vilavelhense wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Match statistics
Match story
How the game unfoldedCautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)
Vilavelhense make it count (Unknown (35')). It's 0–1 at this point.
Half-time score: Rio Branco AC ES 0 – 1 Vilavelhense.
The game settles after the break without a breakthrough. (0–1)
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (0–1)
League table
Cup Espirito Santo| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vitoria ES | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 16:6 | 13 |
| 2 |  Porto Vitoria | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10:4 | 12 |
| 3 |  Rio Branco-VN | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3:4 | 7 |
| 4 | Vilavelhense | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6:7 | 6 |
| 5 |  SC Brasil Capixaba | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3:8 | 6 |
| 6 | Rio Branco AC ES | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5:6 | 4 |
| 7 |  Audax Sao Mateus | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2:7 | 4 |
| 8 |  Serra | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 5:8 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.