Gornik Polkowice vs Lechia Zielona Gora: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Our model leans the draw (86% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −The head-to-head record favours Gornik Polkowice (5-0-1).
- −Gornik Polkowice have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours Gornik Polkowice (5-0-1).
- Gornik Polkowice have home advantage.
- Goals outlook: an open game likely.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Gornik Polkowice and Lechia Zielona Gora. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 9% for Gornik Polkowice, 86% for the draw and 5% for Lechia Zielona Gora.
Several signals point toward the draw. The odds point to a clear favourite.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 5 Gornik Polkowice wins, 0 draws and 1 Lechia Zielona Gora wins. Recent scorelines: 5-0, 0-1, 0-1, 2-1, 2-0.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-2 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Gornik Polkowice show L-L-W-L-L across their recent outings, while Lechia Zielona Gora read L-L-W-L-W. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 65%. The match profile leans toward a higher goal total.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Gornik Polkowice" (1X2): we rate it 9% versus the 3% implied by odds of 28.00, an edge of 5.6 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Gornik Polkowice or Lechia Zielona Gora?
Our model rates the draw as the most likely outcome at 86% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Gornik Polkowice vs Lechia Zielona Gora?
A scoreline around 2-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 5 Gornik Polkowice wins, 0 draws, 1 Lechia Zielona Gora wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.
Match statistics
Match story
How the game unfoldedCautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)
No goals but plenty of bite: 1 card(s) in this spell. Score holds at 0–0.
Half-time score: Gornik Polkowice 0 – 0 Lechia Zielona Gora.
Lechia Zielona Gora make it count (Unknown (60'), Unknown (69')). It's 0–2 at this point.
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (0–2)
League table
Poland Championship. Liga 3. Group 3| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33 | 20 | 3 | 10 | 75:16 | 70 | |
| 2 | 33 | 20 | 6 | 7 | 63:40 | 67 | |
| 3 | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 53:34 | 62 | |
| 4 | 33 | 17 | 8 | 8 | 67:54 | 59 | |
| 5 | 33 | 17 | 10 | 6 | 75:58 | 57 | |
| 6 | 34 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 67:43 | 52 | |
| 7 | 33 | 15 | 12 | 6 | 73:42 | 51 | |
| 8 | 33 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 46:44 | 51 | |
| 9 | 33 | 14 | 12 | 7 | 52:47 | 49 | |
| 10 | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 49:57 | 49 | |
| 11 | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 49:49 | 47 | |
| 12 | 33 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 46:48 | 45 | |
| 13 | 33 | 12 | 14 | 7 | 61:57 | 43 | |
| 14 | 33 | 11 | 13 | 9 | 55:56 | 42 | |
| 15 | 33 | 8 | 15 | 10 | 49:57 | 34 | |
| 16 | 33 | 7 | 20 | 6 | 32:79 | 27 | |
| 17 | 33 | 5 | 24 | 4 | 28:75 | 19 | |
| 18 | 34 | 2 | 31 | 1 | 21:105 | 7 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.