← All predictions
Poland Championship. Liga 3

Gornik Polkowice vs Lechia Zielona Gora: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

Gornik Polkowice Gornik PolkowicevsLechia Zielona Gora Lechia Zielona Gora
Our predictionDraw
Confidence: High · 92/100
Score hint: 2-2

Our model leans the draw (86% probability), high confidence.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

Win probabilities

1 · Gornik Polkowice9%
Draw86%
2 · Lechia Zielona Gora5%
1 · Gornik PolkowiceDraw2 · Lechia Zielona Gora
Full team comparison

Value radar

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.

1X2Gornik Polkowice28.00+5.6%
O/U 2.5Under 2.52.75-0.2%
1X2Lechia Zielona Gora17.40-0.3%
1X2Draw1.01-5.3%
O/U 2.5Over 2.51.39-8.0%
Our model BookmakerPositive edge = potential value. Not betting advice.

Recent form

Gornik PolkowiceLLWLL
Lechia Zielona GoraLLWLW
Team strength rating
Gornik Polkowice
33
Lechia Zielona Gora
22

Expected goals

1.80Gornik Polkowice
xG
1.51Lechia Zielona Gora
Over 2.5 goals64%
Both teams to score65%

Most likely scorelines

1-19.9%
2-18.9%
1-27.5%
2-26.7%
1-06.6%
2-05.9%

Match DNA

AttackDefenseFormStrengthH2HVenue
Gornik Polkowice Lechia Zielona Gora

Key points

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment
1X2Draw1.01Avoid (-5.3%)
Total goalsOver 2.51.39Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A012345
04642
1710741
269731
34542
4222
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Gornik Polkowice and Lechia Zielona Gora. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 9% for Gornik Polkowice, 86% for the draw and 5% for Lechia Zielona Gora.

Several signals point toward the draw. The odds point to a clear favourite.

Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 5 Gornik Polkowice wins, 0 draws and 1 Lechia Zielona Gora wins. Recent scorelines: 5-0, 0-1, 0-1, 2-1, 2-0.

If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-2 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.

On form, Gornik Polkowice show L-L-W-L-L across their recent outings, while Lechia Zielona Gora read L-L-W-L-W. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 65%. The match profile leans toward a higher goal total.

Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Gornik Polkowice" (1X2): we rate it 9% versus the 3% implied by odds of 28.00, an edge of 5.6 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Gornik Polkowice or Lechia Zielona Gora?

Our model rates the draw as the most likely outcome at 86% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Gornik Polkowice vs Lechia Zielona Gora?

A scoreline around 2-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 6 meetings: 5 Gornik Polkowice wins, 0 draws, 1 Lechia Zielona Gora wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward over 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

Match statistics

Unknown🟥42'
60'Unknown
69'Unknown

Match story

How the game unfolded
0–15'00

Cautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)

15–45'00

No goals but plenty of bite: 1 card(s) in this spell. Score holds at 0–0.

42'🟥Unknown
Half-time

Half-time score: Gornik Polkowice 0 – 0 Lechia Zielona Gora.

45–75'02

Lechia Zielona Gora make it count (Unknown (60'), Unknown (69')). It's 0–2 at this point.

60'Unknown69'Unknown
75–90'+02

A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (0–2)

Full time: Gornik Polkowice 02 Lechia Zielona Gora

League table

Poland Championship. Liga 3. Group 3
#TeamGPWLTGPts
1Lechia Zielona Gora332031075:1670
2Gornik Polkowice33206763:4067
3Sparta Katowice34188853:3462
4KS Skra Czestochowa33178867:5459
5Zaglebie Lubin II331710675:5857
6Kluczbork341512767:4352
7Gornik Zabrze II331512673:4251
8LKS Goczalkowice-Zdroj331410946:4451
9Warta Gorzow331412752:4749
10Sleza Wroclaw341413749:5749
11MKP Carina Gubin3312101149:4947
12Slowianin Woliborz331212946:4845
13Miedz Legnica II331214761:5743
14Karkonosze Jelenia Gora331113955:5642
15Polonia Nysa338151049:5734
16LZS Starowice33720632:7927
17Pniowek Pawlowice Slaskie33524428:7519
18MKS Stal Jasien34231121:1057
Promotion - Division 2 Promotion - Division 2 (Promotion - Play-off) Relegation

Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.