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Poland Championship. Liga 3

Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs KS Cracovia II: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

Siarka Tarnobrzeg Siarka TarnobrzegvsKS Cracovia II KS Cracovia II
Our predictionSiarka Tarnobrzeg to win
Confidence: High · 92/100
Score hint: 2-1

Our model leans Siarka Tarnobrzeg (78% probability), high confidence.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

Win probabilities

1 · Siarka Tarnobrzeg78%
Draw4%
2 · KS Cracovia II17%
1 · Siarka TarnobrzegDraw2 · KS Cracovia II
Full team comparison

Value radar

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.

1X2KS Cracovia II6.10+2.1%
1X2Draw18.90-0.4%
1X2Siarka Tarnobrzeg1.16-1.6%
Our model BookmakerPositive edge = potential value. Not betting advice.

Recent form

Siarka TarnobrzegLWDLW
KS Cracovia IIWDLWW
Team strength rating
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
75
KS Cracovia II
41

Most likely scorelines

2-016.6%
1-015.1%
3-012.2%
2-18.0%
1-17.2%
0-06.9%

Expected goals

2.20Siarka Tarnobrzeg
xG
0.48KS Cracovia II
Over 2.5 goals49%
Both teams to score34%

Match DNA

AttackDefenseFormStrengthH2HVenue
Siarka Tarnobrzeg KS Cracovia II

Key points

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment
1X2Siarka Tarnobrzeg win1.16Fair (-1.6%)

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A012345
073
11572
21782
31261
473
531

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Siarka Tarnobrzeg and KS Cracovia II. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 78% for Siarka Tarnobrzeg, 4% for the draw and 17% for KS Cracovia II.

Several signals point toward Siarka Tarnobrzeg. The odds point to a clear favourite. The head-to-head record favours Siarka Tarnobrzeg (3-3-0). Siarka Tarnobrzeg have home advantage.

Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 3 Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins, 3 draws and 0 KS Cracovia II wins. Recent scorelines: 0-0, 2-2, 2-3, 1-0, 0-0.

If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.

On form, Siarka Tarnobrzeg show L-W-D-L-W across their recent outings, while KS Cracovia II read W-D-L-W-W. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 34%. The totals market stays finely balanced.

Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "KS Cracovia II" (1X2): we rate it 17% versus the 15% implied by odds of 6.10, an edge of 2.1 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Siarka Tarnobrzeg or KS Cracovia II?

Our model rates Siarka Tarnobrzeg as the most likely outcome at 78% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs KS Cracovia II?

A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 6 meetings: 3 Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins, 3 draws, 0 KS Cracovia II wins.

See odds at bookmakers

Match statistics

Matuszewski2'
Mroz10'
Mroz13'
Waclawek34'
35'Unknown
38'Unknown
44'Unknown
60'Unknown
Marszalik Kacper69'

Match story

How the game unfolded
0–15'30

Siarka Tarnobrzeg make it count (Matuszewski (2'), Mroz (10'), Mroz (13')). It's 3–0 at this point.

2'Matuszewski10'Mroz13'Mroz
15–45'43

An end-to-end spell with goals at both ends (Waclawek (34'), Unknown (35'), Unknown (38'), Unknown (44')). Score moves to 4–3.

34'Waclawek35'Unknown38'Unknown44'Unknown
Half-time

Half-time score: Siarka Tarnobrzeg 4 – 3 KS Cracovia II.

45–75'54

An end-to-end spell with goals at both ends (Unknown (60'), Marszalik Kacper (69')). Score moves to 5–4.

60'Unknown69'Marszalik Kacper
75–90'+54

A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (5–4)

Full time: Siarka Tarnobrzeg 54 KS Cracovia II

League table

Poland Championship. Liga 3. Group 4
#TeamGPWLTGPts
1GPTS Avia Swidnik33223881:3374
2Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski33214864:3071
3CKS Chelmianka Chelm33204963:3069
4Star Starachowice341591051:4355
5Korona Kielce II331712462:5855
6MKS Czarni Polaniec331612557:4653
7Podlasie331491058:4552
8Pogon Sokol Lubaczow341411961:4551
9Wislanie Skawina331512651:4751
10KS Wisloka Debica331291236:3348
11Wisla Krakow II331415464:5646
12Siarka Tarnobrzeg3311121054:4643
13Naprzod Jedrzejow331117545:5238
14Sokol Kolbuszowa Dolna331019435:5434
15Stal Krasnik33818739:5231
16KS Cracovia II33819638:6630
17Swidniczanka Swidnik33524435:7919
18Sparta Kazimierza Wielka33428129:10813
Promotion - Division 2 Promotion - Division 2 (Promotion - Play-off) Relegation

Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.