Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs KS Cracovia II: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Our model leans Siarka Tarnobrzeg (78% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +The head-to-head record favours Siarka Tarnobrzeg (3-3-0).
- −Recent form favours KS Cracovia II.
- +Siarka Tarnobrzeg have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours Siarka Tarnobrzeg (3-3-0).
- Recent form favours KS Cracovia II.
- Siarka Tarnobrzeg have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 1 | 15 | 7 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 17 | 8 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 12 | 6 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 7 | 3 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Siarka Tarnobrzeg and KS Cracovia II. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 78% for Siarka Tarnobrzeg, 4% for the draw and 17% for KS Cracovia II.
Several signals point toward Siarka Tarnobrzeg. The odds point to a clear favourite. The head-to-head record favours Siarka Tarnobrzeg (3-3-0). Siarka Tarnobrzeg have home advantage.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 3 Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins, 3 draws and 0 KS Cracovia II wins. Recent scorelines: 0-0, 2-2, 2-3, 1-0, 0-0.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Siarka Tarnobrzeg show L-W-D-L-W across their recent outings, while KS Cracovia II read W-D-L-W-W. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 34%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "KS Cracovia II" (1X2): we rate it 17% versus the 15% implied by odds of 6.10, an edge of 2.1 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Siarka Tarnobrzeg or KS Cracovia II?
Our model rates Siarka Tarnobrzeg as the most likely outcome at 78% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs KS Cracovia II?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins, 3 draws, 0 KS Cracovia II wins.
Match statistics
Match story
How the game unfoldedSiarka Tarnobrzeg make it count (Matuszewski (2'), Mroz (10'), Mroz (13')). It's 3–0 at this point.
An end-to-end spell with goals at both ends (Waclawek (34'), Unknown (35'), Unknown (38'), Unknown (44')). Score moves to 4–3.
Half-time score: Siarka Tarnobrzeg 4 – 3 KS Cracovia II.
An end-to-end spell with goals at both ends (Unknown (60'), Marszalik Kacper (69')). Score moves to 5–4.
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (5–4)
League table
Poland Championship. Liga 3. Group 4| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 33 | 22 | 3 | 8 | 81:33 | 74 | |
| 2 | 33 | 21 | 4 | 8 | 64:30 | 71 | |
| 3 | 33 | 20 | 4 | 9 | 63:30 | 69 | |
| 4 | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 51:43 | 55 | |
| 5 | 33 | 17 | 12 | 4 | 62:58 | 55 | |
| 6 | 33 | 16 | 12 | 5 | 57:46 | 53 | |
| 7 | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 58:45 | 52 | |
| 8 | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 61:45 | 51 | |
| 9 | 33 | 15 | 12 | 6 | 51:47 | 51 | |
| 10 | 33 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 36:33 | 48 | |
| 11 | 33 | 14 | 15 | 4 | 64:56 | 46 | |
| 12 | 33 | 11 | 12 | 10 | 54:46 | 43 | |
| 13 | 33 | 11 | 17 | 5 | 45:52 | 38 | |
| 14 | 33 | 10 | 19 | 4 | 35:54 | 34 | |
| 15 | 33 | 8 | 18 | 7 | 39:52 | 31 | |
| 16 | 33 | 8 | 19 | 6 | 38:66 | 30 | |
| 17 | 33 | 5 | 24 | 4 | 35:79 | 19 | |
| 18 | 33 | 4 | 28 | 1 | 29:108 | 13 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.