New York City II vs Columbus Crew II: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
New York City IIvs
Columbus Crew IIOur model leans New York City II (38% probability), low confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −The head-to-head record favours Columbus Crew II (2-0-4).
- −Recent form favours Columbus Crew II.
- +New York City II have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours Columbus Crew II (2-0-4).
- Recent form favours Columbus Crew II.
- New York City II have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between New York City II and Columbus Crew II. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 38% for New York City II, 31% for the draw and 31% for Columbus Crew II.
Several signals point toward New York City II. The odds point to a clear favourite. New York City II have home advantage.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 2 New York City II wins, 0 draws and 4 Columbus Crew II wins. Recent scorelines: 1-0, 3-1, 2-1, 2-0, 3-2.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, New York City II show L-W-L-L-L across their recent outings, while Columbus Crew II read W-W-L-L-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 52%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Columbus Crew II" (1X2): we rate it 31% versus the 25% implied by odds of 3.56, an edge of 5.6 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, New York City II or Columbus Crew II?
Our model rates New York City II as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for New York City II vs Columbus Crew II?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 2 New York City II wins, 0 draws, 4 Columbus Crew II wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.