Aguia de Maraba vs Tocantinopolis EC: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Aguia de Marabavs
Tocantinopolis ECOur model leans Aguia de Maraba (60% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +The head-to-head record favours Aguia de Maraba (2-2-1).
- +Recent form favours Aguia de Maraba.
- +Aguia de Maraba have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours Aguia de Maraba (2-2-1).
- Recent form favours Aguia de Maraba.
- Aguia de Maraba have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Aguia de Maraba and Tocantinopolis EC. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 60% for Aguia de Maraba, 17% for the draw and 24% for Tocantinopolis EC.
Several signals point toward Aguia de Maraba. The odds point to a clear favourite. The head-to-head record favours Aguia de Maraba (2-2-1). Recent form favours Aguia de Maraba.
Across the last 5 meetings, the record reads 2 Aguia de Maraba wins, 2 draws and 1 Tocantinopolis EC wins. Recent scorelines: 2-2, 0-0, 3-0, 0-2, 1-0.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Aguia de Maraba show W-L-L-W-W across their recent outings, while Tocantinopolis EC read L-L-W-D-D. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 46%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Aguia de Maraba" (1X2): we rate it 60% versus the 56% implied by odds of 1.61, an edge of 3.5 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Aguia de Maraba or Tocantinopolis EC?
Our model rates Aguia de Maraba as the most likely outcome at 60% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Aguia de Maraba vs Tocantinopolis EC?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 2 Aguia de Maraba wins, 2 draws, 1 Tocantinopolis EC wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.