Moto Club Sao Luis vs Maracana: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Moto Club Sao Luisvs
MaracanaOur model leans Maracana (36% probability), low confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +Recent form favours Maracana.
- −Moto Club Sao Luis have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Recent form favours Maracana.
- Moto Club Sao Luis have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Moto Club Sao Luis and Maracana. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 33% for Moto Club Sao Luis, 31% for the draw and 36% for Maracana.
Several signals point toward Maracana. Recent form favours Maracana.
Across the last 1 meetings, the record reads 0 Moto Club Sao Luis wins, 0 draws and 1 Maracana wins. Recent scorelines: 2-0.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-2 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Moto Club Sao Luis show L-D-L-L-D across their recent outings, while Maracana read W-D-D-D-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Maracana" (1X2): we rate it 36% versus the 34% implied by odds of 2.68, an edge of 2.4 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Moto Club Sao Luis or Maracana?
Our model rates Maracana as the most likely outcome at 36% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Moto Club Sao Luis vs Maracana?
A scoreline around 1-2 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 0 Moto Club Sao Luis wins, 0 draws, 1 Maracana wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.