Ceilandia vs Goiatuba EC: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Ceilandiavs
Goiatuba ECOur model leans Ceilandia (39% probability), medium confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +Recent form favours Ceilandia.
- +Ceilandia have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Recent form favours Ceilandia.
- Ceilandia have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 11 | 12 | 7 | 3 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | ||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Ceilandia and Goiatuba EC. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 39% for Ceilandia, 29% for the draw and 32% for Goiatuba EC.
Several signals point toward Ceilandia. The odds point to a clear favourite. Recent form favours Ceilandia. Ceilandia have home advantage.
Across the last 1 meetings, the record reads 0 Ceilandia wins, 0 draws and 1 Goiatuba EC wins. Recent scorelines: 1-0.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Ceilandia show W-L-W-W-W across their recent outings, while Goiatuba EC read D-L-D-L-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 52%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Ceilandia" (1X2): we rate it 39% versus the 36% implied by odds of 2.51, an edge of 3.1 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Ceilandia or Goiatuba EC?
Our model rates Ceilandia as the most likely outcome at 39% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Ceilandia vs Goiatuba EC?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 0 Ceilandia wins, 0 draws, 1 Goiatuba EC wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.