Pouso Alegre vs Associacao Portuguesa de Desportos: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Pouso Alegrevs
Associacao Portuguesa de DesportosOur model leans the draw (50% probability), medium confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −The head-to-head record favours Associacao Portuguesa de Desportos (1-0-2).
- −Pouso Alegre have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Most likely scorelines
Recent form
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours Associacao Portuguesa de Desportos (1-0-2).
- Pouso Alegre have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | |||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Pouso Alegre and Associacao Portuguesa de Desportos. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 17% for Pouso Alegre, 50% for the draw and 32% for Associacao Portuguesa de Desportos.
Several signals point toward the draw. The odds point to a clear favourite.
Across the last 3 meetings, the record reads 1 Pouso Alegre wins, 0 draws and 2 Associacao Portuguesa de Desportos wins. Recent scorelines: 3-0, 2-0, 2-1.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Pouso Alegre show L-W-L-D-L across their recent outings, while Associacao Portuguesa de Desportos read L-D-L-L-W. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 52%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Associacao Portuguesa de Desportos" (1X2): we rate it 32% versus the 29% implied by odds of 3.08, an edge of 2.8 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Pouso Alegre or Associacao Portuguesa de Desportos?
Our model rates the draw as the most likely outcome at 50% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Pouso Alegre vs Associacao Portuguesa de Desportos?
A scoreline around 1-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 1 Pouso Alegre wins, 0 draws, 2 Associacao Portuguesa de Desportos wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.