Agremiacao Sportiva Arapiraquense vs CSE: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Agremiacao Sportiva Arapiraquensevs
CSEOur model leans Agremiacao Sportiva Arapiraquense (70% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +The head-to-head record favours Agremiacao Sportiva Arapiraquense (3-2-1).
- −Recent form favours CSE.
- +Agremiacao Sportiva Arapiraquense have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours Agremiacao Sportiva Arapiraquense (3-2-1).
- Recent form favours CSE.
- Agremiacao Sportiva Arapiraquense have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 2 | 14 | 9 | 3 | |||
| 3 | 10 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 1 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Agremiacao Sportiva Arapiraquense and CSE. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 70% for Agremiacao Sportiva Arapiraquense, 7% for the draw and 22% for CSE.
Several signals point toward Agremiacao Sportiva Arapiraquense. The odds point to a clear favourite. The head-to-head record favours Agremiacao Sportiva Arapiraquense (3-2-1). Agremiacao Sportiva Arapiraquense have home advantage.
Across the last 6 meetings, the record reads 3 Agremiacao Sportiva Arapiraquense wins, 2 draws and 1 CSE wins. Recent scorelines: 1-2, 0-0, 1-2, 4-0, 1-2.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Agremiacao Sportiva Arapiraquense show D-L-L-L-L across their recent outings, while CSE read D-W-L-L-D. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 41%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Agremiacao Sportiva Arapiraquense or CSE?
Our model rates Agremiacao Sportiva Arapiraquense as the most likely outcome at 70% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Agremiacao Sportiva Arapiraquense vs CSE?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 6 meetings: 3 Agremiacao Sportiva Arapiraquense wins, 2 draws, 1 CSE wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.