EC Agua Santa vs Madureira: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
EC Agua Santavs
MadureiraOur model leans EC Agua Santa (56% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +EC Agua Santa have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- EC Agua Santa have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between EC Agua Santa and Madureira. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 56% for EC Agua Santa, 16% for the draw and 28% for Madureira.
Several signals point toward EC Agua Santa. The odds point to a clear favourite. EC Agua Santa have home advantage.
Across the last 1 meetings, the record reads 0 EC Agua Santa wins, 0 draws and 1 Madureira wins. Recent scorelines: 3-1.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, EC Agua Santa show L-D-D-L-W across their recent outings, while Madureira read D-L-L-L-W. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 48%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, EC Agua Santa or Madureira?
Our model rates EC Agua Santa as the most likely outcome at 56% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for EC Agua Santa vs Madureira?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 0 EC Agua Santa wins, 0 draws, 1 Madureira wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.