Urawa Red Diamonds vs Fagiano Okayama: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Urawa Red Diamondsvs
Fagiano OkayamaOur model leans Urawa Red Diamonds (52% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +The head-to-head record favours Urawa Red Diamonds (2-1-0).
- +Fagiano Okayama are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Urawa Red Diamonds have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours Urawa Red Diamonds (2-1-0).
- Fagiano Okayama are dealing with notable absentees.
- Urawa Red Diamonds have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 11 | 10 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Urawa Red Diamonds and Fagiano Okayama. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 52% for Urawa Red Diamonds, 23% for the draw and 25% for Fagiano Okayama.
Several signals point toward Urawa Red Diamonds. The odds point to a clear favourite. The head-to-head record favours Urawa Red Diamonds (2-1-0). Fagiano Okayama are dealing with notable absentees.
Across the last 3 meetings, the record reads 2 Urawa Red Diamonds wins, 1 draws and 0 Fagiano Okayama wins. Recent scorelines: 1-1, 0-1, 1-0.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Urawa Red Diamonds show D-L-W-W-W across their recent outings, while Fagiano Okayama read D-W-L-W-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 49%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Urawa Red Diamonds" (1X2): we rate it 52% versus the 48% implied by odds of 1.95, an edge of 3.7 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Urawa Red Diamonds or Fagiano Okayama?
Our model rates Urawa Red Diamonds as the most likely outcome at 52% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Urawa Red Diamonds vs Fagiano Okayama?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 3 meetings: 2 Urawa Red Diamonds wins, 1 draws, 0 Fagiano Okayama wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.