Donau vs SC-ESV Parndorf 1919: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Our model leans the draw (54% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −The head-to-head record favours SC-ESV Parndorf 1919 (0-0-4).
- −Donau have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours SC-ESV Parndorf 1919 (0-0-4).
- Donau have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Donau and SC-ESV Parndorf 1919. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 21% for Donau, 54% for the draw and 25% for SC-ESV Parndorf 1919.
Several signals point toward the draw. The odds point to a clear favourite.
Across the last 4 meetings, the record reads 0 Donau wins, 0 draws and 4 SC-ESV Parndorf 1919 wins. Recent scorelines: 2-0, 1-0, 1-0, 0-1.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Donau show L-W-W-L-L across their recent outings, while SC-ESV Parndorf 1919 read L-W-W-W-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "SC-ESV Parndorf 1919" (1X2): we rate it 25% versus the 22% implied by odds of 4.20, an edge of 3.7 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Donau or SC-ESV Parndorf 1919?
Our model rates the draw as the most likely outcome at 54% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Donau vs SC-ESV Parndorf 1919?
A scoreline around 1-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 4 meetings: 0 Donau wins, 0 draws, 4 SC-ESV Parndorf 1919 wins.
League table
Austria. Regionalliga East| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31 | 18 | 5 | 8 | 57:39 | 62 | |
| 2 | 31 | 17 | 6 | 8 | 53:32 | 59 | |
| 3 | 31 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 59:28 | 58 | |
| 4 | 31 | 17 | 11 | 3 | 43:33 | 54 | |
| 5 | 31 | 16 | 10 | 5 | 68:40 | 53 | |
| 6 | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 69:47 | 50 | |
| 7 | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 52:34 | 48 | |
| 8 | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 51:42 | 47 | |
| 9 | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 53:37 | 46 | |
| 10 | 31 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 48:52 | 44 | |
| 11 | 31 | 12 | 12 | 7 | 48:51 | 43 | |
| 12 | 31 | 12 | 13 | 6 | 45:49 | 42 | |
| 13 | 31 | 12 | 16 | 3 | 43:50 | 39 | |
| 14 | 32 | 10 | 15 | 7 | 32:47 | 37 | |
| 15 | 31 | 8 | 18 | 5 | 44:67 | 29 | |
| 16 | 31 | 3 | 20 | 8 | 23:63 | 17 | |
| 17 | 31 | 2 | 27 | 2 | 20:97 | 8 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.