Zvezda Saint Petersburg vs Irkutsk: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Our model leans Irkutsk (64% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- +The head-to-head record favours Irkutsk (0-1-4).
- −Zvezda Saint Petersburg have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Expected goals
Most likely scorelines
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours Irkutsk (0-1-4).
- Zvezda Saint Petersburg have home advantage.
- Goals outlook: a tight, low-scoring game likely.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 6 | 2 | |
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 1 | |||||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Zvezda Saint Petersburg and Irkutsk. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 24% for Zvezda Saint Petersburg, 12% for the draw and 64% for Irkutsk.
Several signals point toward Irkutsk. The odds point to a clear favourite. The head-to-head record favours Irkutsk (0-1-4).
Across the last 5 meetings, the record reads 0 Zvezda Saint Petersburg wins, 1 draws and 4 Irkutsk wins. Recent scorelines: 1-2, 2-1, 4-0, 1-1, 2-3.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 0-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Zvezda Saint Petersburg show L-L-D-D-W across their recent outings, while Irkutsk read L-W-L-L-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 39% and both teams to score at 40%. The profile leans toward a tighter, lower-scoring game.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Zvezda Saint Petersburg or Irkutsk?
Our model rates Irkutsk as the most likely outcome at 64% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Zvezda Saint Petersburg vs Irkutsk?
A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 0 Zvezda Saint Petersburg wins, 1 draws, 4 Irkutsk wins.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.
Match statistics
Match story
How the game unfoldedCautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)
Zvezda Saint Petersburg make it count (Arsen Nyshanaliev (15')). It's 1–0 at this point.
Half-time score: Zvezda Saint Petersburg 1 – 0 Irkutsk.
Irkutsk make it count (Aleksey Naydenov (57')). It's 1–1 at this point.
A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (1–1)
League table
Russian Championship. League 2. Division B. Group 2| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 15:2 | 22 | |
| 2 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 14:6 | 22 | |
| 3 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17:7 | 20 | |
| 4 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 14:4 | 19 | |
| 5 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 15:7 | 19 | |
| 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 14:11 | 18 | |
| 7 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 10:8 | 13 | |
| 8 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 9:11 | 11 | |
| 9 | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 11:17 | 11 | |
| 10 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 11:17 | 10 | |
| 11 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 13:19 | 10 | |
| 12 | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 9:18 | 8 | |
| 13 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6:12 | 7 | |
| 14 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 7:16 | 6 | |
| 15 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 6:16 | 4 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.