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Russian Championship. League 2. Division B. Group 2

Zvezda Saint Petersburg vs Irkutsk: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

Zvezda Saint Petersburg Zvezda Saint PetersburgvsIrkutsk Irkutsk
Our predictionIrkutsk to win
Confidence: High · 92/100
Score hint: 0-1

Our model leans Irkutsk (64% probability), high confidence.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

Win probabilities

1 · Zvezda Saint Petersburg24%
Draw12%
2 · Irkutsk64%
1 · Zvezda Saint PetersburgDraw2 · Irkutsk
Full team comparison

Recent form

Zvezda Saint PetersburgLLDDW
IrkutskLWLLL
Team strength rating
Zvezda Saint Petersburg
30
Irkutsk
67

Expected goals

0.73Zvezda Saint Petersburg
xG
1.53Irkutsk
Over 2.5 goals39%
Both teams to score40%

Most likely scorelines

0-116.0%
0-212.2%
1-111.7%
0-010.5%
1-28.9%
1-07.6%

Match DNA

AttackDefenseFormStrengthH2HVenue
Zvezda Saint Petersburg Irkutsk

Key points

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment
1X2Irkutsk win1.48Fair (+1.3%)
Total goalsUnder 2.51.56Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A012345
010161262
1812952
23432
31
4
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Value radar

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.

1X2Irkutsk1.48+1.3%
1X2Zvezda Saint Petersburg3.71-0.6%
1X2Draw7.48-0.7%
O/U 2.5Under 2.51.56-3.0%
O/U 2.5Over 2.52.32-4.0%
Our model BookmakerPositive edge = potential value. Not betting advice.

Full analysis

The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Zvezda Saint Petersburg and Irkutsk. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 24% for Zvezda Saint Petersburg, 12% for the draw and 64% for Irkutsk.

Several signals point toward Irkutsk. The odds point to a clear favourite. The head-to-head record favours Irkutsk (0-1-4).

Across the last 5 meetings, the record reads 0 Zvezda Saint Petersburg wins, 1 draws and 4 Irkutsk wins. Recent scorelines: 1-2, 2-1, 4-0, 1-1, 2-3.

If the trend holds, a scoreline around 0-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.

On form, Zvezda Saint Petersburg show L-L-D-D-W across their recent outings, while Irkutsk read L-W-L-L-L. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 39% and both teams to score at 40%. The profile leans toward a tighter, lower-scoring game.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, Zvezda Saint Petersburg or Irkutsk?

Our model rates Irkutsk as the most likely outcome at 64% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for Zvezda Saint Petersburg vs Irkutsk?

A scoreline around 0-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 5 meetings: 0 Zvezda Saint Petersburg wins, 1 draws, 4 Irkutsk wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

Match statistics

Arsen Nyshanaliev15'
57'Aleksey Naydenov

Match story

How the game unfolded
0–15'00

Cautious start, both sides feeling each other out. (0–0)

15–45'10

Zvezda Saint Petersburg make it count (Arsen Nyshanaliev (15')). It's 1–0 at this point.

15'Arsen Nyshanaliev
Half-time

Half-time score: Zvezda Saint Petersburg 1 – 0 Irkutsk.

45–75'11

Irkutsk make it count (Aleksey Naydenov (57')). It's 1–1 at this point.

57'Aleksey Naydenov
75–90'+11

A tense finish, but the scoreline stays put. (1–1)

Full time: Zvezda Saint Petersburg 11 Irkutsk

League table

Russian Championship. League 2. Division B. Group 2
#TeamGPWLTGPts
1Dynamo Saint Petersburg971115:222
2Murom1072114:622
3Chertanovo1062217:720
4Luki-Energy Velikiye Luki950414:419
5Baltika Kaliningrad II1063115:719
6Cherepovets963014:1118
7Dynamo Vologda944110:813
8Torpedo Vladimir93429:1111
9Spartak Moscow II1136211:1711
10Yenisey Krasnoyarsk II1036111:1710
11Tver1036113:1910
12Iskra Smolensk102629:188
13Zvezda Saint Petersburg81346:127
14Irkutsk92707:166
15Cosmos Khimki90546:164
Promotion Relegation

Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.