Sport Club do Recife vs Athletic Club MG: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Sport Club do Recifevs
Athletic Club MGOur model leans Sport Club do Recife (53% probability), high confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −Sport Club do Recife are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Athletic Club MG are dealing with notable absentees.
- +Sport Club do Recife have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- Sport Club do Recife are dealing with notable absentees.
- Athletic Club MG are dealing with notable absentees.
- Sport Club do Recife have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 3 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 11 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Sport Club do Recife and Athletic Club MG. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 53% for Sport Club do Recife, 19% for the draw and 28% for Athletic Club MG.
Several signals point toward Sport Club do Recife. The odds point to a clear favourite. Athletic Club MG are dealing with notable absentees. Sport Club do Recife have home advantage.
Across the last 1 meetings, the record reads 0 Sport Club do Recife wins, 0 draws and 1 Athletic Club MG wins. Recent scorelines: 1-3.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 2-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Sport Club do Recife show W-L-W-W-L across their recent outings, while Athletic Club MG read W-W-D-L-D. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams to score at 49%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Sport Club do Recife or Athletic Club MG?
Our model rates Sport Club do Recife as the most likely outcome at 53% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Sport Club do Recife vs Athletic Club MG?
A scoreline around 2-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 1 meetings: 0 Sport Club do Recife wins, 0 draws, 1 Athletic Club MG wins.
League table
Brazil. Campeonato Brasileiro. Serie B| # | Team | GP | W | L | T | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vila Nova | 12 | 7 | 1 | 4 | 18:11 | 25 |
| 2 |  Sao Bernardo | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 20:10 | 24 |
| 3 | Sport Club do Recife | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 15:7 | 22 |
| 4 |  Fortaleza EC | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 15:11 | 21 |
| 5 |  Criciuma | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 14:10 | 20 |
| 6 |  Clube Nautico Capibaribe | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 16:12 | 19 |
| 7 |  Operario Ferroviario | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 14:15 | 19 |
| 8 |  Goias Esporte Clube | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 12:13 | 17 |
| 9 |  Novorizontino | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 14:11 | 17 |
| 10 | Athletic Club MG | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13:11 | 17 |
| 11 |  Esporte Clube Juventude | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 10:8 | 16 |
| 12 |  Atletico Clube Goianiense | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 12:12 | 16 |
| 13 |  Cuiaba | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 8:6 | 16 |
| 14 |  CRB Maceio | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 19:20 | 14 |
| 15 |  Ceara | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 12:13 | 13 |
| 16 |  Botafogo Ribeirao Preto | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 11:12 | 10 |
| 17 |  Avai | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 11:15 | 10 |
| 18 |  Londrina | 12 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 12:20 | 8 |
| 19 |  Associacao Atletica Ponte Preta | 12 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 10:22 | 8 |
| 20 |  America Minas Gerais | 12 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 7:24 | 3 |
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.