Phoenix Rising vs Louisville City: Prediction, Odds & Analysis
Phoenix Risingvs
Louisville CityOur model leans the draw (38% probability), low confidence.
Why this prediction
+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.
- +The odds point to a clear favourite.
- −The head-to-head record favours Louisville City (0-3-2).
- −Recent form favours Louisville City.
- −Phoenix Rising have home advantage.
Win probabilities
Value radar
Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.
Recent form
Most likely scorelines
Expected goals
Match DNA
Key points
- The odds point to a clear favourite.
- The head-to-head record favours Louisville City (0-3-2).
- Recent form favours Louisville City.
- Phoenix Rising have home advantage.
Betting angles
Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.
Scoreline probability matrix
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 1 | |||||
| 5 |
Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.
Full analysis
The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between Phoenix Rising and Louisville City. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 29% for Phoenix Rising, 38% for the draw and 32% for Louisville City.
Several signals point toward the draw. The odds point to a clear favourite.
Across the last 5 meetings, the record reads 0 Phoenix Rising wins, 3 draws and 2 Louisville City wins. Recent scorelines: 4-1, 2-2, 0-0, 2-2, 1-0.
If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.
On form, Phoenix Rising show L-L-L-L-D across their recent outings, while Louisville City read D-W-L-W-W. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.
On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The totals market stays finely balanced.
Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Louisville City" (1X2): we rate it 32% versus the 26% implied by odds of 3.45, an edge of 6.0 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.
This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite, Phoenix Rising or Louisville City?
Our model rates the draw as the most likely outcome at 38% probability.
What's a likely scoreline for Phoenix Rising vs Louisville City?
A scoreline around 1-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.
What's the head-to-head record?
In the last 5 meetings: 0 Phoenix Rising wins, 3 draws, 2 Louisville City wins.
Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.