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Gambian Championship. 1st Division

TMT vs Bombada: Prediction, Odds & Analysis

TMT TMTvsBombada Bombada
Our predictionDraw
Confidence: High · 89/100
Score hint: 1-1

Our model leans the draw (64% probability), high confidence.

Why this prediction

+ supports the predicted pick, − argues against it.

Win probabilities

1 · TMT13%
Draw64%
2 · Bombada23%
1 · TMTDraw2 · Bombada
Full team comparison

Value radar

Markets where our model disagrees with the bookmaker. A positive edge means our model rates the outcome more likely than the odds imply — a potential value spot.

O/U 2.5Over 2.53.02+6.9%
1X2TMT10.30+3.9%
1X2Bombada4.47+2.8%
1X2Draw1.31-6.7%
O/U 2.5Under 2.51.33-14.9%
Our model BookmakerPositive edge = potential value. Not betting advice.

Recent form

TMTWDLDD
BombadaLLLDD
Team strength rating
TMT
36
Bombada
39

Expected goals

1.08TMT
xG
1.21Bombada
Over 2.5 goals40%
Both teams to score46%

Most likely scorelines

1-113.2%
0-112.3%
1-011.0%
0-010.1%
1-28.0%
0-27.4%

Match DNA

AttackDefenseFormStrengthH2HVenue
TMT Bombada

Key points

Betting angles

MarketPickOddsAssessment
1X2Draw1.31Avoid (-6.7%)
Total goalsUnder 2.51.33Fair

Assessments compare our model probability with the bookmaker odds. "Value" means our model rates the pick higher than the market implies. Not betting advice.

Scoreline probability matrix

H \ A012345
0101273
1111383
26742
3232
4
5

Each cell shows the probability (%) of that exact scoreline (home goals down the side, away goals across the top). Computed from a Poisson model on expected goals.

Full analysis

The model blends the odds, head-to-head history and recent form to frame this clash between TMT and Bombada. After removing the bookmaker margin, the probabilities settle at 13% for TMT, 64% for the draw and 23% for Bombada.

Several signals point toward the draw. The odds point to a clear favourite.

Across the last 5 meetings, the record reads 0 TMT wins, 1 draws and 4 Bombada wins. Recent scorelines: 2-0, 2-2, 1-0, 0-1, 2-0.

If the trend holds, a scoreline around 1-1 is plausible — treat it as a pointer, not a certainty.

On form, TMT show W-D-L-D-D across their recent outings, while Bombada read L-L-L-D-D. Recent momentum carries weight in the assessment, particularly when combined with home advantage and the competition context.

On the secondary markets, our model puts over 2.5 goals at 40% and both teams to score at 46%. The profile leans toward a tighter, lower-scoring game.

Our model flags a disagreement with the market on "Over 2.5" (O/U 2.5): we rate it 40% versus the 33% implied by odds of 3.02, an edge of 6.9 points. That's where the market appears to underrate the true likelihood.

This prediction is a statistical analysis, not a guarantee. Higher confidence means the signals agree more strongly, but football is unpredictable. Always bet responsibly.

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite, TMT or Bombada?

Our model rates the draw as the most likely outcome at 64% probability.

What's a likely scoreline for TMT vs Bombada?

A scoreline around 1-1 fits our analysis, as a pointer, not a certainty.

What's the head-to-head record?

In the last 5 meetings: 0 TMT wins, 1 draws, 4 Bombada wins.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The indicators lean toward under 2.5 goals.

See odds at bookmakers

League table

Gambian Championship. 1st Division
#TeamGPWLTGPts
1Medina United26138530:2444
2Bombada261051133:2541
3Fortune Farato261051125:2041
4Gambia Ports Authority261061021:1740
5Brikama United26108829:2638
6Real de Banjul26851324:1937
7Team Rhino2699823:2135
8Gambian Dutch Lions26771226:2333
9Hart Academy2689931:3033
10BST Galaxy26781122:2532
11Falcons26671315:1831
12Greater Tomorrow26710921:2830
13Banjul Hawks26711823:2929
14Steve Biko26591220:2327
15Samger265101118:2326
16TMT265101113:2326
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification) League (Play Out - Play-off) Relegation

Predictions are statistical analysis for information only, not betting advice or a guarantee. 18+. Please gamble responsibly.